INPATH C:\Projects\Code\Beta\FairPark\2003Q1 'Note that the longer dataset is read in first. This sets the size of the database. OPEN FMAGE.DAT MERGE FMDATA.DAT 'Rename the series that cause conflicts. The string "cos" is used as the function cosine in Beta. rename cos coss 'Read in the data that was created with the FP INTER command. MERGE CDA_IHHA.DAT 'Make some dummies. DUMMY D981 1998:1 1998:1 4 DUMMY D621 1962:1 1962:1 4 DUMMY D722 1972:2 1972:2 4 DUMMY D723 1972:3 1972:3 4 DUMMY D923 1992:3 1992:3 4 DUMMY D924 1992:4 1992:4 4 DUMMY D941 1994:1 1994:1 4 DUMMY D942 1994:2 1994:2 4 DUMMY D013 2001:3 2001:3 4 DUMMY D014 2001:4 2001:4 4 'from file FMGENR GENR CNST=1 GENR LCSZ=LOG(CS/POP) GENR LCNZ=LOG(CN/POP) GENR LCNZ1=LCNZ-LCNZ(-1) GENR CDZ=CD/POP GENR LCDZ=LOG(CD/POP) GENR IHHZ=IHH/POP GENR LIHHZ=LOG(IHH/POP) GENR LL1Z=LOG(L1/POP1) GENR LL2Z=LOG(L2/POP2) GENR LL3Z=LOG(L3/POP3) GENR LLMZ=LOG(LM/POP) GENR LMHZ=LOG(MH/(POP*PH)) GENR LPF=LOG(PF) GENR LHO=LOG(HO) GENR LWF=LOG(WF) GENR LWFQ=LOG(WF)-LOG(LAM) GENR LMFZ=LOG(MF/PF) GENR LHF=LOG(HF) GENR LHFL1A=LOG(HF(-1)/HFS(-1)) GENR BOZBR=BO/BR GENR LXZ=LOG(X/POP) GENR LPIEFA=LOG(PIEF-TFG-TFS) GENR LPIEFAZ=LOG((PIEF-TFG-TFS)/DF(-1)) GENR LCURZ=LOG(CUR/(POP*PF)) GENR LIMZ=LOG(IM/POP) GENR LUB=LOG(UB) GENR LPIKIKF=LOG(PIK*IKF) GENR LGAPA=LOG((YS-Y)/YS+.04) GENR LX=LOG(X) GENR LU=LOG(U) GENR LWFD5=LOG(WF*(1+D5G))-LOG(LAM) GENR LEXL=LOG(JF/(JHMIN/HFS)) GENR LY=LOG(Y) GENR LYZ=LOG(Y/POP) GENR YDZ=YD/(POP*PH) GENR LYDZ=LOG(YD/(POP*PH)) GENR AAZ=AA/POP GENR LAAZ=LOG(AAZ) GENR LWFQZPF=LWFQ-LPF GENR KHZ=KH/POP GENR LKHZ=LOG(KHZ) GENR LPIM=LOG(PIM) GENR LPIMZ=LOG(PIM/PF) GENR RSB=RS*(1-D2G-D2S) GENR COGS=COG+COSS GENR JHGSZ=(JG*HG+JM*HM+JS*HS)/POP GENR LJHGSZ=LOG(JHGSZ) GENR LCOGSZ=LOG(COGS/POP) GENR ODHM=1-D1GM-D1SM-D4G GENR LODHM=LOG(ODHM) GENR LEX=LOG(EX) GENR LEXZ=LOG(EX/POP) GENR LV=LOG(V) GENR LVZ=LOG(V/X) GENR KDZ=KD/POP GENR LJF1=LOG(JF/JF(-1)) GENR LHF1=LOG(HF/HF(-1)) GENR LY1=LOG(Y/Y(-1)) GENR PCPD=100*((PD/PD(-1))^4-1) GENR RB1=RB-RB(-1) GENR TPIEM1Z=(PIEF-TFG-TFS+PX*PIEB-TBG-TBS-(PIEF(-1)-TFG(-1)-TFS(-1)+PX(-1)*PIEB(-1)-TBG(-1)-TBS(-1)))/(PX(-1)*YS(-1)) GENR PCM1L1A=D794823*PCM1(-1) GENR LMHL1Q=LOG(MH(-1)/(POP(-1)*PH)) GENR LMFL1Q=LOG(MF(-1)/PF) GENR LCURL1Q=LOG(CUR(-1)/(POP(-1)*PF)) GENR Y1=Y-Y(-1) GENR PCGDPR=100*((GDPR/GDPR(-1))^4-1) GENR RS1=RS-RS(-1) GENR TRGSZ=(TRGH+TRSH)/(POP*PH(-1)) GENR LTRGSZ=LOG(TRGSZ) GENR WAZPH=WA/PH GENR LWAZPH=LOG(WA/PH) GENR LDF=LOG(DF) GENR LDF1=LOG(DF)-LOG(DF(-1)) GENR LCCF=LOG(CCF) GENR LCCF1=LOG(CCF)-LOG(CCF(-1)) GENR PX1VL=(PX-PX(-1))*V(-1) GENR YNLZ=YNL/(POP*PH) GENR LYNLZ=LOG(YNLZ) GENR LPFZPIM=LOG(PF/PIM) GENR RMACDZ=RMA*CDA GENR RMALIHHZ=RMA(-1)*IHHA GENR LXMFA=LOG(X-FA) GENR LXMFAZ=LOG((X-FA)/POP) GENR LPIKIKFZ=LPIKIKF-LOG(CCF(-1)) GENR RBMRSL2=RB-RS(-2) GENR RSMRSL2=RS-RS(-2) GENR RSLMRSL2=RS(-1)-RS(-2) GENR RMMRSL2=RM-RS(-2) GENR RMLMRSL2=RM(-1)-RS(-2) GENR RBLMRSL2=RB(-1)-RS(-2) GENR BETA1= 0.8798951981 GENR BETA2= 0.0450396536 GENR DELTA1=BETA1/(1-BETA2) GENR LWFQZ=LWFQ-DELTA1*LPF(-1) GENR LPFZ=LPF-DELTA1*LPF(-1) GENR LLAM=LOG(LAM) GENR LKK=LOG(KK) GENR UR1=UR-UR(-1) GENR CGZ=CG/(PX(-1)*YS(-1)) GENR LXXXZ=LOG((CS+CN+CD+IHH+IKF+IKH+IKB+IHF+IHB)/POP) GENR RQ=(.3*(RS/400)+.7*(1/8)*(1/400)*(RB+RB(-1)+RB(-2)+RB(-3)+RB(-4)+RB(-5)+RB(-6)+RB(-7))) GENR INTFZ=-INTF/(AF-40.) GENR INTFZ1=-INTF/(AF-40.)+INTF(-1)/(AF(-1)-40.) GENR INTGZ=-INTG/AG GENR INTGZ1=-INTG/AG+INTG(-1)/AG(-1) GENR RQF=.75*RQ-INTFZ(-1) GENR RQG=.75*RQ-INTGZ(-1) 'Second place this is used. GENR LX=LOG(X) GENR RBA4=RB*(1-D2G-D2S)-100*(PD/PD(-4)-1) GENR CGZ3=(CG+CG(-1)+CG(-2))/(PX*YS+PX(-1)*YS(-1)+PX(-2)*YS(-2)) GENR LKK1=LKK-LKK(-1) GENR DKDZCDL1=(DELD*KD(-1)-CD(-1))/POP(-1) GENR CDZ1=CDZ-CDZ(-1) GENR DKHZIHL1=(DELH*KH(-1)-IHH(-1))/POP(-1) GENR IHHZ1=IHHZ-IHHZ(-1) GENR LEXKK=LOG(KK/KKMIN) 'From FMEQ 'Remove STORE since they are redundant with Beta. 'Add the DN switch to match the Fair-Park results. SMPL 1954.1 2003.1 EQUATION EQ10.TSLS LPF LPF(-1) LWFD5 C LPIM UR T @ LPF(-1) LWFD5(-1) C LPIMZ(-1) UR(-1) T LCOGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LYNLZ(-1) LTRGSZ LAAZ(-1) LYZ(-1) / DN 'Use 2 of the betas from the regression above. SMPL 1952.1 2003.1 GENR BETA1= .8798952 GENR BETA2= 4.503965E-02 GENR DELTA1=BETA1/(1-BETA2) 'Those allow 2 more transformations. GENR LWFQZ=LWFQ-DELTA1*LPF(-1) GENR LPFZ=LPF-DELTA1*LPF(-1) IDENTITY I_WF WF=EXP(LWFQZ+DELTA1*LPF(-1))*LAM 'SMPL 1954:1 2003.1 'EQUATION EQ16.TSLS LWFQZ LWFQZPF(-1) LPFZ C T @ LWFQZPF(-1) LPFZ(-1) C T LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LYNLZ(-1) UR(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) LPIMZ(-1) RS(-1) RS(-2) RB(-1) / DN 'EQ 16 LWFQZ LWFQZPF(-1) LPFZ C T 'EQUATION 16 LWFQZ ' RHS LWFQZPF(-1) LPFZ C T ''LHS WF=EXP(LWFQZ+DELTA1*LPF(-1))*LAM; 'EQ 16 FSR LWFQZPF(-1) LPFZ(-1) C T ' LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LYNLZ(-1) UR(-1) ' LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) LPIMZ(-1) RS(-1) RS(-2) RB(-1); 'EQUATION 16 LWFQZ ' RHS LWFQZPF(-1) LPFZ C T ' FSR LWFQZPF(-1) LPFZ(-1) C T LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ ' FSR LEXZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LYNLZ(-1) UR(-1) LYZ(-1) ' FSR LVZ(-1) LPIMZ(-1) RS(-1) RS(-2) RB(-1) '2SLS ; SMPL 1954:1 2003.1 EQUATION EQ1.TSLS LCSZ C AG1 AG2 AG3 LCSZ(-1) LYDZ RSA LAAZ(-1) T @ C AG1 AG2 AG3 LCSZ(-1) LAAZ(-1) T LYDZ(-1) RSA(-1) LODHM(-1) LIMZ(-1) LJHGSZ LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) PCPD(-1) LCOGSZ LTRGSZ RS(-2) RB(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) UR(-1) / DN EQUATION EQ2.TSLS LCNZ C AG1 AG2 AG3 LCNZ(-1) LCNZ1(-1) LAAZ(-1) LYDZ RMA @ C AG1 AG2 AG3 LCNZ(-1) LCNZ1(-1) LAAZ(-1) LYDZ(-1) RMA(-1) LCOGSZ LEXZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LIMZ(-1) LTRGSZ LJHGSZ LYNLZ(-1) LPIMZ(-1) PCPD(-1) UR(-1) LVZ(-1) RS(-1) RS(-2) / DN EQUATION EQ3.TSLS CDZ1 C AG1 AG2 AG3 DKDZCDL1 KDZ(-1) YDZ RMACDZ AAZ(-1) @ C AG1 AG2 AG3 KDZ(-1) AAZ(-1) YDZ(-1) RMACDZ(-1) LCOGSZ LEXZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LTRGSZ LYNLZ(-1) LPIMZ(-1) DKDZCDL1 / DN EQUATION EQ4.TSLS IHHZ1 C DKHZIHL1 KHZ(-1) YDZ RMALIHHZ AR(1) AR(2) @ C KHZ(-1) RMALIHHZ YDZ(-1) KHZ(-2) KHZ(-3) RMALIHHZ(-1) RMALIHHZ(-2) YDZ(-2) LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LYNLZ(-1) PCPD(-1) LIMZ(-1) DKHZIHL1 DKHZIHL1(-1) DKHZIHL1(-2) IHHZ1(-1) IHHZ1(-2) / DN EQUATION EQ5.TSLS LL1Z C LL1Z(-1) LAAZ(-1) UR @ C LL1Z(-1) LAAZ(-1) UR(-1) LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) PCPD(-1) LODHM(-1) LIMZ(-1) / DN EQUATION EQ6.TSLS LL2Z C LL2Z(-1) LWAZPH LAAZ(-1) @ C LL2Z(-1) LAAZ(-1) LWAZPH(-1) T LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LYNLZ(-1) LPIMZ(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) RS(-1) RS(-2) RB(-1) / DN EQUATION EQ7.TSLS LL3Z C LL3Z(-1) LWAZPH LAAZ(-1) UR @ C LL3Z(-1) LAAZ(-1) LWAZPH(-1) UR(-1) LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LPIMZ(-1) PCPD(-1) LYZ(-1) / DN EQUATION EQ8.TSLS LLMZ C LLMZ(-1) LWAZPH UR @ C LLMZ(-1) LWAZPH(-1) UR(-1) LJHGSZ LPIMZ(-1) PCPD(-1) RS(-1) RS(-2) RB(-1) LCOGSZ LTRGSZ LODHM(-1) LYNLZ(-1) LAAZ(-1) LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) / DN 'The results from Beta are different than the FP program for equation 9. This is because Beta will not allow ' a start date earlier than 1954:2 since there are 5 observations lost due to lags, and an AR of 4. EQUATION EQ9.TSLS LMHZ C LMHL1Q LYDZ RSA T D981 AR(1) AR(2) AR(3) AR(4) @ C LMHZ(-1) LYDZ(-1) RSA(-1) T LMHL1Q(-1) LMHL1Q(-2) LMHL1Q(-3) LMHL1Q(-4) LYDZ(-2) LYDZ(-3) LYDZ(-4) LYDZ(-5) RSA(-2) RSA(-3) RSA(-4) RSA(-5) LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) PCPD(-1) UR(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) LAAZ(-1) RB(-1) D981 D981(-1) D981(-2) D981(-3) D981(-4) / DN SMPL 1954:1 2003.1 EQUATION EQ10.TSLS LPF LPF(-1) LWFD5 C LPIM UR T @ LPF(-1) LWFD5(-1) C LPIMZ(-1) UR(-1) T LCOGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LYNLZ(-1) LTRGSZ LAAZ(-1) LYZ(-1) / DN EQUATION EQ11.TSLS LY C LY(-1) LX LV(-1) D593 D594 D601 AR(1) AR(2) AR(3) @ C LY(-1) LV(-1) LY(-2) LY(-3) LY(-4) LV(-2) LV(-3) LV(-4) D593 D594 D601 D601(-1) D601(-2) D601(-3) T LCOGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) UR(-1) RS(-1) RB(-1) PCPD(-1) / DN EQUATION EQ12.TSLS LKK1 C LEXKK(-1) LKK1(-1) LY1 LY1(-1) LY1(-2) LY1(-3) LY1(-4) RBA4(-2) CGZ3(-2) @ LKK(-1) LKK(-2) LY(-1) LY(-2) LY(-3) LY(-4) LY(-5) C LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LODHM(-1) LYNLZ(-1) UR(-1) LEXZ(-1) LAAZ(-1) RBA4(-2) CGZ3(-2) LEXKK(-1) / DN EQUATION EQ13.TSLS LJF1 C LEXL(-1) LJF1(-1) LY1 D593 @ C LEXL(-1) LJF1(-1) LY1(-1) D593 LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) PCPD(-1) UR(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) RS(-1) RS(-2) RB(-1) LTRGSZ LYNLZ(-1) LAAZ(-1) LPIMZ(-1) / DN EQUATION EQ14.TSLS LHF1 C LHFL1A LEXL(-1) LY1 @ C LHFL1A LEXL(-1) LY1(-1) LJHGSZ PCPD(-1) UR(-1) RS(-1) RS(-2) LPIMZ(-1) / DN SMPL 1956:1 2003.1 EQUATION EQ15.LS LHO C HFF HFF(-1) AR(1) / DN SMPL 1954:1 2003.1 EQUATION EQ16.TSLS LWFQZ LWFQZPF(-1) LPFZ C T @ LWFQZPF(-1) LPFZ(-1) C T LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LYNLZ(-1) UR(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) LPIMZ(-1) RS(-1) RS(-2) RB(-1) / DN SMPL 1954:1 2003.1 EQUATION EQ17.TSLS LMFZ C LMFL1Q LXMFA RSB(-1) D981 @ C LMFZ(-1) LXMFA(-1) RSB(-1) T LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) PCPD(-1) UR(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) RS(-2) RB(-1) D981 / DN ' Slightly different. EQUATION EQ18.TSLS LDF1 LPIEFAZ @ LPIEFAZ(-1) C LJHGSZ PCPD(-1) UR(-1) RS(-1) RS(-2) LPIMZ(-1) / DN EQUATION EQ19.LS INTFZ1 C RQF AR(1) / DN EQUATION EQ20.LS IVA PX1VL AR(1) / DN EQUATION EQ21.LS LCCF1 LPIKIKFZ C D621 D722 D723 D923 D924 D941 D942 D013 D014 AR(1) / DN EQUATION EQ22.TSLS BOZBR C BOZBR(-1) RS RD @ BOZBR(-1) RS(-1) RD(-1) C T LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) PCPD(-1) UR(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) RS(-2) RB(-1) LAAZ(-1) / DN EQUATION EQ23.TSLS RBMRSL2 C RBLMRSL2 RSMRSL2 RSLMRSL2 AR(1) @ C RB(-1) RB(-2) RS(-1) RS(-2) RS(-3) LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) PCPD(-1) UR(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) LAAZ(-1) / DN EQUATION EQ24.TSLS RMMRSL2 C RMLMRSL2 RSMRSL2 RSLMRSL2 @ C RM(-1) RS(-1) RS(-2) LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) PCPD(-1) UR(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) LAAZ(-1) / DN EQUATION EQ25.TSLS CGZ C RB1 TPIEM1Z @ C RB1(-1) TPIEM1Z(-1) T LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) PCPD(-1) UR(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) RS(-1) RS(-2) RB(-1) LAAZ(-1) / DN EQUATION EQ26.TSLS LCURZ C LCURL1Q LXMFAZ RSA AR(1) @ C LCURZ(-1) LXMFAZ(-1) RSA(-1) LCURL1Q(-1) T LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) UR(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) RS(-2) RB(-1) LAAZ(-1) PCPD(-1) / DN EQUATION EQ27.TSLS LIMZ C LIMZ(-1) LXXXZ LPFZPIM D691 D692 D714 D721 AR(1) AR(2) @ C LIMZ(-1) LXXXZ(-1) LPFZPIM(-1) LIMZ(-2) LIMZ(-3) LXXXZ(-2) LXXXZ(-3) LPFZPIM(-2) LPFZPIM(-3) D691 D692 D714 D721 D692(-1) D692(-2) D721(-1) D721(-2) LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LYNLZ(-1) PCPD(-1) UR(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) RS(-1) RB(-1) LAAZ(-1) / DN EQUATION EQ28.TSLS LUB C LUB(-1) LU LWF AR(1) @ C LUB(-1) LU(-1) LWF(-1) LUB(-2) LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) PCPD(-1) RS(-1) RS(-2) / DN EQUATION EQ29.LS INTGZ1 C RQG / DN EQUATION EQ30.TSLS RS C RS(-1) PCPD UR UR1 PCM1(-1) PCM1L1A RS1(-1) RS1(-2) @ C RS(-1) PCPD(-1) UR(-1) UR1(-1) PCM1(-1) PCM1L1A RS1(-1) RS1(-2) T LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) LAAZ(-1) / DN 'Identities from file FMA. The top ones untransform the endogenous variables. IDENTITY I_CS CS=EXP(LCSZ)*POP IDENTITY I_CN CN=EXP(LCNZ)*POP IDENTITY I_CD CD=(CDZ1+CD(-1)/POP(-1))*POP IDENTITY I_IHH IHH=(IHHZ1+IHH(-1)/POP(-1))*POP IDENTITY I_L1 L1=EXP(LL1Z)*POP1 IDENTITY I_L2 L2=EXP(LL2Z)*POP2 IDENTITY I_L3 L3=EXP(LL3Z)*POP3 IDENTITY I_LM LM=EXP(LLMZ)*POP IDENTITY I_MH MH=EXP(LMHZ)*(POP*PH) IDENTITY I_PF PF=EXP(LPF) IDENTITY I_Y Y=EXP(LY) IDENTITY I_KK KK=EXP(LKK1)*KK(-1) IDENTITY I_JF JF=EXP(LJF1)*JF(-1) IDENTITY I_HF HF=EXP(LHF1)*HF(-1) IDENTITY I_HO HO=EXP(LHO) 'IDENTITY I_WF WF=EXP(LWFQZ+DELTA1*LPF(-1))*LAM This was done above. IDENTITY I_MF MF=EXP(LMFZ)*PF IDENTITY I_DF DF=EXP(LDF1)*DF(-1) 'Identities above for EQ 1 to 18. IDENTITY I_CCF CCF=EXP(LCCF1)*CCF(-1) IDENTITY I_BO BO=BOZBR*BR IDENTITY I_RB RB=RBMRSL2+RS(-2) IDENTITY I_RM RM=RMMRSL2+RS(-2) IDENTITY I_CG CG=CGZ*PX(-1)*YS(-1) IDENTITY I_CUR CUR=EXP(LCURZ)*(POP*PF) IDENTITY I_IM IM=EXP(LIMZ)*POP IDENTITY I_UB UB=EXP(LUB) 'FMINPUT.DAT uses 'LHS INTF=(INTFZ1+INTFZ(-1))*AAF*1.0; IDENTITY I_INTF INTF=-(INTFZ1+INTFZ(-1))*(AF-40.) 'FMINPUT.DAT uses 'LHS INTG=(INTGZ1+INTGZ(-1))*AAG*1.0; IDENTITY I_INTG INTG=-(INTGZ1+INTGZ(-1))*AG IDENTITY I_PX PX=(PF*(X-FA)+PFA*FA)/X IDENTITY I_PEX PEX=PSI1*PX IDENTITY I_PD PD=(PX*X-PEX*EX+PIM*IM)/(X-EX+IM) IDENTITY I_PH PH=(PCS*CS+PCN*CN+PCD*CD+PIH*IHH+IBTG+IBTS)/(CS+CN+CD+IHH) IDENTITY I_PCS PCS=PSI2*(1+D3G+D3S)*PD IDENTITY I_PCN PCN=PSI3*(1+D3G+D3S)*PD IDENTITY I_PCD PCD=PSI4*(1+D3G+D3S)*PD IDENTITY I_PIH PIH=PSI5*PD IDENTITY I_PIK PIK=PSI6*PD IDENTITY I_PG PG=PSI7*PD IDENTITY I_PS PS=PSI8*PD IDENTITY I_PIV PIV=PSI9*PD IDENTITY I_WH WH=100*((WF*JF*(HN+1.5*HO)+WG*JG*HG+WM*JM*HM+WS*JS*HS-SIGG-SISS)/(JF*(HN+1.5*HO)+JG*HG+JM*HM+JS*HS)) IDENTITY I_WG WG=PSI10*WF IDENTITY I_WM WM=PSI11*WF IDENTITY I_WS WS=PSI12*WF IDENTITY I_THG THG=(D1G+((TAUG*YT)/POP))*YT IDENTITY I_THS THS=(D1S+((TAUS*YT)/POP))*YT IDENTITY I_TFG TFG=D2G*(PIEF-TFS) IDENTITY I_TFS TFS=D2S*PIEF IDENTITY I_IBTG IBTG=(D3G/(1+D3G))*(PCS*CS+PCN*CN+PCD*CD-IBTS) IDENTITY I_IBTS IBTS=(D3S/(1+D3S))*(PCS*CS+PCN*CN+PCD*CD-IBTG) IDENTITY I_SIHG SIHG=D4G*(WF*JF*(HN+1.5*HO)) IDENTITY I_SIFG SIFG=D5G*(WF*JF*(HN+1.5*HO)) IDENTITY I_BR BR=-G1*MB IDENTITY I_KD KD=(1-DELD)*KD(-1)+CD IDENTITY I_KH KH=(1-DELH)*KH(-1)+IHH IDENTITY I_X X=CS+CN+CD+IHH+IKF+EX-IM+COG+COSS+IKH+IKB+IKG+IHF+IHB-PIEB-CCB IDENTITY I_XX XX=PCS*CS+PCN*CN+PCD*CD+PIH*IHH+PIK*IKF+PEX*EX-PIM*IM+PG*COG+PS*COSS+PIK*(IKH+IKB+IKG)+PIH*(IHF+IHB)-PX*(PIEB+CCB) -IBTG-IBTS IDENTITY I_HN HN=HF-HO IDENTITY I_V V=V(-1)+Y-X IDENTITY I_YT YT=WF*JF*(HN+1.5*HO)+WG*JG*HG+WM*JM*HM+WS*JS*HS+DF+DB-DRS+INTF+INTG+INTS+INTOTH+INTROW+RNT+TRFH-SIGG-SISS IDENTITY I_SH SH=YT+CCH-PCS*CS-PCN*CN-PCD*CD-PIH*IHH-PIK*IKH-TRHR-THG-SIHG+TRGH-THS-SIHS+TRSH+UB+INS-WLDF IDENTITY I_AH AH=AH(-1)+SH-MH+MH(-1)+CG-DISH IDENTITY I_PIEF PIEF=XX+PIV*(V-V(-1)) -WF*JF*(HN+1.5*HO) -RNT-TRFH-TRFR-CCH+SUBG+SUBS-INTF-INTOTH-INTROW-CCF-IVA -STAT-SIFG-SIFS +FIUS-FIROW-CCG-CCS+WLDG+WLDS+DISBA IDENTITY I_CF CF=XX-WF*JF*(HN+1.5*HO) -RNT-TRFH-TRFR-CCH+SUBG+SUBS-INTF-INTOTH-INTROW-PIK*IKF-PIH*IHF-SIFG-SIFS+FIUS-FIROW -CCG-CCS+WLDF IDENTITY I_SF SF=CF-TFG-TFS-DF IDENTITY I_AF AF=AF(-1)+SF-MF+MF(-1) -DISF -STAT +DISBA-WLDF+WLDG+WLDS IDENTITY I_MB MB=MB(-1) -MH+MH(-1) -MF+MF(-1) -MR+MR(-1) -MG+MG(-1) -MS+MS(-1)+CUR-CUR(-1) IDENTITY I_SB SB=PX*(PIEB+CCB) -PIK*IKB-PIH*IHB-DB-TBG-TBS IDENTITY I_AB AB=AB(-1)+SB-MB+MB(-1) -(BR-BO)+(BR(-1) -BO(-1)) -DISB IDENTITY I_SR SR=PIM*IM+TRHR+TRGR-PEX*EX +TRFR +FIROW-FIUS 'ARR ?, set to 0 to start. SMPL 1952.1 2003.1 GENR ARR = 0 IDENTITY I_ARR ARR=ARR(-1)+SR-MR+MR(-1)+Q-Q(-1) -DISR IDENTITY I_SG SG=THG+IBTG+TFG+TBG+SIHG+SIFG-PG*COG-WG*JG*HG-WM*JM*HM-INTG-TRGR-TRGH-TRGS-SUBG-INS +SIGG -PIK*IKG +CCG IDENTITY I_AG AG=AG(-1)+SG-MG+MG(-1)+CUR-CUR(-1)+(BR-BO) -(BR(-1) -BO(-1))-Q+Q(-1) -DISG IDENTITY I_SS SS=THS+IBTS+TFS+TBS+SIHS+SIFS+TRGS+DRS-PS*COSS-WS*JS*HS-INTS-SUBS-TRSH-UB +SISS +CCS IDENTITY I_AS AS=AS(-1)+SS-MS+MS(-1) -DISS IDENTITY I_M1 M1=M1(-1)+MH-MH(-1)+MF-MF(-1)+MR-MR(-1)+MS-MS(-1)+MDIF IDENTITY I_GDP GDP=XX+PIV*(V-V(-1))+IBTG+IBTS+WG*JG*HG+WM*JM*HM+WS*JS*HS+WLDG+WLDS+PX*(PIEB+CCB) IDENTITY I_GDPR GDPR=Y+PIEB+CCB+PSI13*(JG*HG+JM*HM+JS*HS)+STATP IDENTITY I_GDPD GDPD=GDP/GDPR IDENTITY I_E E=JF+JG+JM+JS-LM IDENTITY I_U U=L1+L2+L3-E IDENTITY I_UR UR=U/(L1+L2+L3-JM) IDENTITY I_AA AA=(AH+MH)/PH+(PIH*KH)/PH IDENTITY I_D1GM D1GM=D1G+(2*TAUG*YT)/POP IDENTITY I_D1SM D1SM=D1S+(2*TAUS*YT)/POP IDENTITY I_IKF IKF=KK-(1-DELK)*KK(-1) IDENTITY I_KKMIN KKMIN=Y/MUH IDENTITY I_JHMIN JHMIN=Y/LAM IDENTITY I_JJ JJ=(JF*HF+JG*HG+JM*HM+JS*HS)/POP IDENTITY I_JJS JJS=JJ/JJP IDENTITY I_Z Z=(1-JJP/JJ-ABS(1-JJP/JJ))/2 IDENTITY I_YS YS=LAM*(JJP*POP-JG*HG-JM*HM-JS*HS) IDENTITY I_YNL YNL=(1-D1G-D1S-(TAUG+TAUS)*(YT/POP))*(RNT+DF+DB-DRS+INTF+INTG+INTS+INTOTH+INTROW+TRFH)+TRGH+TRSH+UB IDENTITY I_HFF HFF=HF-HFS IDENTITY I_TPG TPG=THG IDENTITY I_TCG TCG=TFG+TBG IDENTITY I_SIG SIG=SIHG+SIFG+SIGG IDENTITY I_PUG PUG=PG*COG+WG*JG*HG+WM*JM*HM +WLDG IDENTITY I_RECG RECG=TPG+TCG+IBTG+SIG IDENTITY I_EXPG EXPG=PUG+TRGH+TRGR+TRGS+INTG+SUBG-WLDG -IGZ IDENTITY I_SGP SGP=RECG-EXPG IDENTITY I_TCS TCS=TFS+TBS IDENTITY I_SIS SIS=SIHS+SIFS+SISS IDENTITY I_PUS PUS=PS*COSS+WS*JS*HS +WLDS -ISZ IDENTITY I_TRRSH TRRSH=TRSH+UB IDENTITY I_RECS RECS=THS+TCS+IBTS+SIS+TRGS IDENTITY I_EXPS EXPS=PUS+TRRSH+INTS-DRS+SUBS-WLDS IDENTITY I_SSP SSP=RECS-EXPS IDENTITY I_YD YD=WF*JF*(HN+1.5*HO)+WG*JG*HG+WM*JM*HM+WS*JS*HS+RNT+DF+DB-DRS+INTF+INTG+INTS+INTOTH+INTROW+TRFH+TRGH+TRSH+UB-SIHG-SIHS-THG-THS-TRHR-SIGG-SISS IDENTITY I_SRZ SRZ=(YD-PCS*CS-PCN*CN-PCD*CD)/YD IDENTITY I_IVF IVF=V-V(-1) IDENTITY I_PROD PROD=Y/(JF*HF) IDENTITY I_WR WR=WF/PF IDENTITY I_POP POP=POP1+POP2+POP3 IDENTITY I_SHRPIE SHRPIE=((1-D2G-D2S)*PIEF)/(WF*JF*(HN+1.5*HO)) IDENTITY I_PCGDPR PCGDPR=100*((GDPR/GDPR(-1))^4-1) IDENTITY I_PCGDPD PCGDPD=100*((GDPD/GDPD(-1))^4-1) IDENTITY I_PCM1 PCM1=100*((M1/M1(-1))^4-1) IDENTITY I_UBR UBR=BR-BO IDENTITY I_WA WA=100*((1-D1GM-D1SM-D4G)*WF*JF*(HN+1.5*HO)+(1-D1GM-D1SM)*(WG*JG*HG+WM*JM*HM+WS*JS*HS-SIGG-SISS))/(JF*(HN+1.5*HO)+JG*HG+JM*HM+JS*HS) IDENTITY I_RSA RSA=RS*(1-D1GM-D1SM) IDENTITY I_RMA RMA=RM*(1-D1GM-D1SM) IDENTITY I_GNP GNP=GDP+FIUS-FIROW IDENTITY I_GNPR GNPR=GDPR+FIUS/FIUSD-FIROW/FIROWD IDENTITY I_GNPD GNPD=GNP/GNPR 'Extend some transformations. USE 2003.2 2006.4 GENR T = [-1]+1 GENR C = 1 'Extend the dummies from FMDATA.DAT. USE 2003.2 2006.4 GENR D593 = 0 GENR D594 = 0 GENR D601 = 0 GENR D691= 0 GENR D692= 0 GENR D714= 0 GENR D721= 0 GENR D794823 = 0 'It seems as though the FairPark program extends the last history year value for some variables. USE 2003.2 2006.4 GENR RD = [-1] GENR FA = [-1] GENR PFA = [-1] GENR PSI1 = [-1] GENR PSI2 = [-1] GENR D3G = [-1] GENR D3S = [-1] GENR PSI3 = [-1] GENR PSI4 = [-1] GENR PSI5 = [-1] GENR PSI6 = [-1] GENR PSI7 = [-1] GENR PSI8 = [-1] GENR PSI9 = [-1] GENR PSI10 = [-1] GENR PSI11 = [-1] GENR PSI12 = [-1] GENR PSI13 = [-1] GENR HG = [-1] GENR JM = [-1] GENR HM = [-1] GENR HS = [-1] GENR SIGG = [-1] GENR SISS = [-1] GENR TAUG = [-1] GENR D1S = [-1] GENR TAUS = [-1] GENR D2G = [-1] GENR D2S = [-1] GENR D4G = [-1] GENR D5G = [-1] GENR G1 = [-1] GENR DELD = [-1] GENR DELH = [-1] GENR IKH = [-1] GENR IKB = [-1] GENR IKG = [-1] GENR IHB = [-1] GENR PIEB = [-1] GENR CCB = [-1] GENR DB = [-1] GENR DRS = [-1] GENR INTS = [-1] GENR INTROW = [-1] GENR SIHS = [-1] GENR INS = [-1] GENR DISH = [-1] GENR TRFR = [-1] GENR SUBG = [-1] GENR SUBS = [-1] GENR STAT = [-1] GENR SIFS = [-1] GENR FIUS = [-1] GENR FIROW = [-1] GENR WLDG = [-1] GENR WLDS = [-1] GENR DISBA = [-1] GENR DISF = [-1] GENR MR = [-1] GENR MG = [-1] GENR MS = [-1] GENR TBG = [-1] GENR TBS = [-1] GENR DISB = [-1] GENR TRGR = [-1] GENR Q = [-1] GENR DISR = [-1] GENR DISG = [-1] GENR DISS = [-1] GENR STATP = [-1] GENR DELK = [-1] GENR MUH = [-1] GENR JJP = [-1] GENR HFS = [-1] GENR CDA = [-1] GENR IHHA = [-1] 'From file FMEXOG. SMPL 2003.2 2006.4 GENR CCH= (1+.015868285)* [-1] GENR COG= (1+.007417072)* [-1] GENR COSS= (1+.007417072)* [-1] SMPL 2003.2 2003.3 GENR D1G= .042 SMPL 2003.4 2004.3 GENR D1G= .041 SMPL 2004.4 2005.3 GENR D1G= .040 SMPL 2005.4 2006.3 GENR D1G= .039 SMPL 2006.4 2006.4 GENR D1G= .038 SMPL 2003.2 2006.4 GENR EX= (1+.012272234)* [-1] GENR FIUSD= (1+.004962932)* [-1] GENR FIROWD= (1+.004962932)* [-1] GENR IHF= (1+.007417072)* [-1] GENR INTOTH= (1+.007417072)* [-1] GENR JG = (1+ .002490679)* [-1] GENR JS =(1+ .002490679)* [-1] GENR LAM=(1+.004173796)* [-1] GENR MDIF= 0 GENR PIM=(1+.003729089)* [-1] GENR POP1=(1+.002490679)* [-1] GENR POP2=(1+.002490679)* [-1] GENR POP3=(1+.004962932)* [-1] GENR RNT=(1+.007417072)* [-1] GENR TRFH=(1+.009853407)* [-1] GENR TRGH=(1+.019426547)* [-1] GENR TRGS=(1+.019426547)* [-1] GENR TRHR=(1+.012272234)* [-1] GENR TRSH=(1+.017058525)* [-1] GENR WLDF= 0 GENR IGZ=(1+.012272234)* [-1] GENR ISZ=(1+.012272234)* [-1] GENR CCG=(1+.007417072)* [-1] GENR CCS=(1+.007417072)* [-1] 'Identities added using formulas from GENR statements so equations could be simulated. IDENTITY I_LWFD5 LWFD5=LOG(WF*(1+D5G))-LOG(LAM) IDENTITY I_LPIM LPIM=LOG(PIM) IDENTITY I_LYDZ LYDZ=LOG(YD/(POP*PH)) IDENTITY I_LAAZ LAAZ=LOG(AAZ) IDENTITY I_LCNZ1 LCNZ1=LCNZ-LCNZ(-1) IDENTITY I_YDZ YDZ=YD/(POP*PH) IDENTITY I_AAZ AAZ=AA/POP IDENTITY I_KDZ KDZ=KD/POP IDENTITY I_RMACDZ RMACDZ=RMA*CDA IDENTITY I_DKDZCDL1 DKDZCDL1=(DELD*KD(-1)-CD(-1))/POP(-1) IDENTITY I_KHZ KHZ=KH/POP IDENTITY I_RMALIHHZ RMALIHHZ=RMA(-1)*IHHA IDENTITY I_DKHZIHL1 DKHZIHL1=(DELH*KH(-1)-IHH(-1))/POP(-1) IDENTITY I_LWAZPH LWAZPH=LOG(WA/PH) IDENTITY I_LMHL1Q LMHL1Q=LOG(MH(-1)/(POP(-1)*PH)) IDENTITY I_LX LX=LOG(X) IDENTITY I_LV LV=LOG(V) IDENTITY I_LY1 LY1=LOG(Y/Y(-1)) IDENTITY I_RBA4 RBA4=RB*(1-D2G-D2S)-100*(PD/PD(-4)-1) IDENTITY I_CGZ3 CGZ3=(CG+CG(-1)+CG(-2))/(PX*YS+PX(-1)*YS(-1)+PX(-2)*YS(-2)) IDENTITY I_LEXKK LEXKK=LOG(KK/KKMIN) IDENTITY I_LEXL LEXL=LOG(JF/(JHMIN/HFS)) IDENTITY I_LHFL1A LHFL1A=LOG(HF(-1)/HFS(-1)) IDENTITY I_LWFQZPF LWFQZPF=LWFQ-LPF IDENTITY I_LPFZ LPFZ=LPF-DELTA1*LPF(-1) IDENTITY I_RSB RSB=RS*(1-D2G-D2S) IDENTITY I_LMFL1Q LMFL1Q=LOG(MF(-1)/PF) IDENTITY I_LXMFA LXMFA=LOG(X-FA) IDENTITY I_LPIEFAZ LPIEFAZ=LOG((PIEF-TFG-TFS)/DF(-1)) IDENTITY I_RQF RQF=.75*RQ-INTFZ(-1) IDENTITY I_PX1VL PX1VL=(PX-PX(-1))*V(-1) IDENTITY I_LPIKIKFZ LPIKIKFZ=LPIKIKF-LOG(CCF(-1)) IDENTITY I_RSMRSL2 RSMRSL2=RS-RS(-2) IDENTITY I_RSLMRSL2 RSLMRSL2=RS(-1)-RS(-2) IDENTITY I_RBLMRSL2 RBLMRSL2=RB(-1)-RS(-2) IDENTITY I_RMLMRSL2 RMLMRSL2=RM(-1)-RS(-2) IDENTITY I_RB1 RB1=RB-RB(-1) IDENTITY I_TPIEM1Z TPIEM1Z=(PIEF-TFG-TFS+PX*PIEB-TBG-TBS-(PIEF(-1)-TFG(-1)-TFS(-1)+PX(-1)*PIEB(-1)-TBG(-1)-TBS(-1)))/(PX(-1)*YS(-1)) IDENTITY I_LCURL1Q LCURL1Q=LOG(CUR(-1)/(POP(-1)*PF)) IDENTITY I_LXMFAZ LXMFAZ=LOG((X-FA)/POP) IDENTITY I_LPFZPIM LPFZPIM=LOG(PF/PIM) IDENTITY I_LXXXZ LXXXZ=LOG((CS+CN+CD+IHH+IKF+IKH+IKB+IHF+IHB)/POP) IDENTITY I_LWF LWF=LOG(WF) IDENTITY I_LU LU=LOG(U) IDENTITY I_RQG RQG=.75*RQ-INTGZ(-1) IDENTITY I_PCPD PCPD=100*((PD/PD(-1))^4-1) IDENTITY I_PCM1L1A PCM1L1A=D794823*PCM1(-1) IDENTITY I_RS1 RS1=RS-RS(-1) IDENTITY I_UR1 UR1=UR-UR(-1) 'Identities added using formulas from GENR statements so identities could be simulated. IDENTITY I_INTFZ INTFZ=-INTF/(AF-40.) IDENTITY I_INTGZ INTGZ=-INTG/AG IDENTITY I_LWFQ LWFQ=LOG(WF)-LOG(LAM) IDENTITY I_RQ RQ=(.3*(RS/400)+.7*(1/8)*(1/400)*(RB+RB(-1)+RB(-2)+RB(-3)+RB(-4)+RB(-5)+RB(-6)+RB(-7))) IDENTITY I_LPIKIKF LPIKIKF=LOG(PIK*IKF) SAVEDATA FairModel2003Q1.DT3 INPATH C:\Projects\Code\Beta\FairPark\2003Q1 OPEN FairModel2003Q1.DT3 'Simulate, the default is dynamic, use flag UseLagIfUndefined which will ' use lagged values of undefined endogenous variables so the order ' of simulation is less important. SIM 2003.2 2006.4 EQ1.D EQ2.D EQ3.D EQ4.D EQ5.D EQ6.D EQ7.D EQ8.D EQ9.D EQ10.D EQ11.D EQ12.D EQ13.D EQ14.D EQ15.D EQ16.D & EQ17.D EQ18.D EQ19.D EQ20.D EQ21.D EQ22.D EQ23.D EQ24.D EQ25.D EQ26.D EQ27.D EQ28.D EQ29.D EQ30.D @ & I_CS I_CN I_CD I_IHH I_L1 I_L2 I_L3 I_LM I_MH I_PF I_Y I_KK I_JF I_HF I_HO I_MF I_WF I_DF & I_CCF I_BO I_RB I_RM I_CG I_CUR I_IM I_UB I_INTF I_INTG I_PX I_PEX I_PD I_PH & I_PCS I_PCN I_PCD I_PIH I_PIK I_PG I_PS I_PIV I_WH I_WG I_WM I_WS I_THG I_THS & I_TFG I_TFS I_IBTG I_IBTS I_SIHG I_SIFG I_BR I_KD I_KH I_X I_XX I_HN I_V I_YT I_SH & I_AH I_PIEF I_CF I_SF I_AF I_MB I_SB I_AB I_SR I_ARR I_SG I_AG I_SS I_AS I_M1 & I_GDP I_GDPR I_GDPD I_E I_U I_UR I_AA I_D1GM I_D1SM I_IKF I_KKMIN I_JHMIN & I_JJ I_JJS I_Z I_YS I_YNL I_HFF I_TPG I_TCG I_SIG I_PUG I_RECG I_EXPG I_SGP I_TCS & I_SIS I_PUS I_TRRSH I_RECS I_EXPS I_SSP I_YD I_SRZ I_IVF I_PROD I_WR I_POP & I_SHRPIE I_PCGDPR I_PCGDPD I_PCM1 I_UBR I_WA I_RSA I_RMA I_GNP I_GNPR I_GNPD & I_LWFD5 I_LPIM I_LYDZ I_LAAZ I_LCNZ1 I_YDZ I_AAZ I_KDZ I_RMACDZ I_DKDZCDL1 & I_KHZ I_RMALIHHZ I_DKHZIHL1 I_LWAZPH I_LMHL1Q I_LX I_LV I_LY1 I_RBA4 I_CGZ3 & I_LEXKK I_LEXL I_LHFL1A I_LWFQZPF I_LPFZ I_RSB I_LMFL1Q I_LXMFA I_LPIEFAZ & I_RQF I_PX1VL I_LPIKIKFZ I_RSMRSL2 I_RSLMRSL2 I_RBLMRSL2 I_RMLMRSL2 & I_RB1 I_TPIEM1Z I_LCURL1Q I_LXMFAZ I_LPFZPIM I_LXXXZ I_LWF I_LU I_RQG & I_PCPD I_PCM1L1A I_RS1 I_UR1 & I_INTFZ I_INTGZ I_LWFQ I_RQ I_LPIKIKF / UseLagIfUndefined SAVEPATH ITERS=40 SAVENONE