Output file for Beta Version 3.00 06-12-2003,9:06:49 AM. EQUATION EQ10.TSLS LPF LPF(-1) LWFD5 C LPIM UR T @ LPF(-1) LWFD5(-1) C LPIMZ(-1) UR(-1) T LCOGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LYNLZ(-1) LTRGSZ LAAZ(-1) LYZ(-1) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- UR_LAG_1 T C LPF_LAG_1 LIMZ_LAG_1 LWFD5_LAG_1 LYZ_LAG_1 LAAZ_LAG_1 LPIMZ_LAG_1 LCOGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 LEXZ_LAG_1 LTRGSZ LYNLZ_LAG_1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- UR LWFD5 LPIM ESTIMATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LPF RESULTS OUTPUT # 1 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .9999703 R**2 ADJ .9999695 UNCENTERED R**2 .9999896 MEAN OF DEP VAR -.8296498 F TEST 1105399 PROB OF F TEST 0 DURBIN-WATSON 1.794075 DURBIN'S H 1.445882 R**2 TIMES N 196.9942 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 1.096388E-05 SUM OF SQUARED RESID 2.159884E-03 SEE OR RMSE 3.311175E-03 SUM OF ABS(RES) .4975508 RHO .1017523 U'DU 1.003685E-04 STD DEV OF DEP VAR .60911 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- UR -.1758387 2.337584E-02 -7.52224 0.000000 T 3.009285E-04 3.039629E-05 9.900172 0.000000 C -2.351015E-02 1.065347E-02 -2.206808 0.028483 LAG_1_LPF .8798952 1.112023E-02 79.1256 0.000000 LWFD5 4.503965E-02 1.342358E-02 3.355263 0.000951 LPIM 4.775326E-02 2.264045E-03 21.09201 0.000000 EQUATION EQ1.TSLS LCSZ C AG1 AG2 AG3 LCSZ(-1) LYDZ RSA LAAZ(-1) T @ C AG1 AG2 AG3 LCSZ(-1) LAAZ(-1) T LYDZ(-1) RSA(-1) LODHM(-1) LIMZ(-1) LJHGSZ LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) PCPD(-1) LCOGSZ LTRGSZ RS(-2) RB(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) UR(-1) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- AG1 AG2 AG3 RB_LAG_1 RS_LAG_2 UR_LAG_1 RSA_LAG_1 T C LCSZ_LAG_1 LIMZ_LAG_1 LYZ_LAG_1 LYDZ_LAG_1 LAAZ_LAG_1 LPIMZ_LAG_1 LJHGSZ LCOGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 LVZ_LAG_1 PCPD_LAG_1 LTRGSZ LYNLZ_LAG_1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RSA LYDZ ESTIMATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LCSZ RESULTS OUTPUT # 2 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .9998476 R**2 ADJ .9998411 UNCENTERED R**2 .9999838 MEAN OF DEP VAR .9413067 F TEST 143579.5 PROB OF F TEST 0 DURBIN-WATSON 1.909905 DURBIN'S H .677044 R**2 TIMES N 196.97 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 1.608543E-05 SUM OF SQUARED RESID 3.168829E-03 SEE OR RMSE 4.010664E-03 SUM OF ABS(RES) .6309586 RHO .0392027 U'DU 4.359504E-04 STD DEV OF DEP VAR .3256783 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AG1 -.3081444 7.548283E-02 -4.082312 0.000065 AG2 -.4534824 .1262782 -3.591138 0.000416 AG3 .7958533 .1611103 4.939803 0.000002 RSA -1.024717E-03 2.063083E-04 -4.966923 0.000001 T 3.405076E-04 9.088087E-05 3.746747 0.000235 C 4.564984E-02 .0387244 1.178839 0.239884 LAG_1_LCSZ .7963793 4.151405E-02 19.18337 0.000000 LYDZ .1072172 3.529012E-02 3.038166 0.002703 LAG_1_LAAZ .0167921 4.620643E-03 3.634147 0.000356 EQUATION EQ2.TSLS LCNZ C AG1 AG2 AG3 LCNZ(-1) LCNZ1(-1) LAAZ(-1) LYDZ RMA @ C AG1 AG2 AG3 LCNZ(-1) LCNZ1(-1) LAAZ(-1) LYDZ(-1) RMA(-1) LCOGSZ LEXZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LIMZ(-1) LTRGSZ LJHGSZ LYNLZ(-1) LPIMZ(-1) PCPD(-1) UR(-1) LVZ(-1) RS(-1) RS(-2) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- AG1 AG2 AG3 RS_LAG_1 RS_LAG_2 UR_LAG_1 RMA_LAG_1 C LCNZ_LAG_1 LCNZ1_LAG_1 LIMZ_LAG_1 LYDZ_LAG_1 LAAZ_LAG_1 LPIMZ_LAG_1 LJHGSZ LCOGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 LEXZ_LAG_1 LVZ_LAG_1 PCPD_LAG_1 LTRGSZ LYNLZ_LAG_1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RMA LYDZ ESTIMATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LCNZ RESULTS OUTPUT # 3 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .9986258 R**2 ADJ .9985673 UNCENTERED R**2 .9998433 MEAN OF DEP VAR .4576475 F TEST 15905.97 PROB OF F TEST 0 DURBIN-WATSON 1.913245 DURBIN'S H .6797814 R**2 TIMES N 196.7293 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 3.705055E-05 SUM OF SQUARED RESID 7.298959E-03 SEE OR RMSE 6.086917E-03 SUM OF ABS(RES) .9232855 RHO .0418616 U'DU 6.438713E-04 STD DEV OF DEP VAR .164615 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AG1 -.1197765 9.597601E-02 -1.247984 0.213518 AG2 .4730663 .1642666 2.879869 0.004418 AG3 -.1850326 .1516484 -1.220142 0.223870 RMA -1.89046E-03 4.001943E-04 -4.723855 0.000004 C -.1593175 7.005545E-02 -2.274163 0.024034 LAG_1_LCNZ .7867218 3.583191E-02 21.9559 0.000000 LAG_1_LCNZ1 .1466849 6.268339E-02 2.340093 0.020280 LYDZ .1057858 2.268848E-02 4.662534 0.000006 LAG_1_LAAZ 4.249823E-02 9.564212E-03 4.443464 0.000015 EQUATION EQ3.TSLS CDZ1 C AG1 AG2 AG3 DKDZCDL1 KDZ(-1) YDZ RMACDZ AAZ(-1) @ C AG1 AG2 AG3 KDZ(-1) AAZ(-1) YDZ(-1) RMACDZ(-1) LCOGSZ LEXZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LTRGSZ LYNLZ(-1) LPIMZ(-1) DKDZCDL1 / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- AG1 AG2 AG3 C LIMZ_LAG_1 LYZ_LAG_1 YDZ_LAG_1 AAZ_LAG_1 LPIMZ_LAG_1 LCOGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 LEXZ_LAG_1 LVZ_LAG_1 KDZ_LAG_1 LTRGSZ LYNLZ_LAG_1 RMACDZ_LAG_1 DKDZCDL1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- YDZ RMACDZ ESTIMATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS CDZ1 RESULTS OUTPUT # 4 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .1863605 R**2 ADJ .1517375 UNCENTERED R**2 .2528386 MEAN OF DEP VAR 4.848043E-03 F TEST 5.013552 PROB OF F TEST 4.346354E-06 DURBIN-WATSON 2.119708 DURBIN'S H 0 R**2 TIMES N 36.71301 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 2.149319E-04 SUM OF SQUARED RESID 4.234158E-02 SEE OR RMSE 1.466056E-02 SUM OF ABS(RES) 2.127168 RHO -6.275376E-02 U'DU 3.190323E-03 STD DEV OF DEP VAR 1.629444E-02 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AG1 .11575 .2269724 .5099739 0.610641 AG2 2.500108 .5949371 4.202306 0.000040 AG3 -2.038421 .5182154 -3.933541 0.000116 C -.2448048 .136201 -1.797379 0.073807 YDZ .1005075 2.306497E-02 4.357583 0.000021 LAG_1_AAZ 5.579906E-04 1.640472E-04 3.401402 0.000812 LAG_1_KDZ -2.463361E-02 5.847585E-03 -4.212613 0.000038 RMACDZ -3.956344E-03 1.548492E-03 -2.554965 0.011375 DKDZCDL1 .3197674 6.173436E-02 5.179731 0.000001 EQUATION EQ4.TSLS IHHZ1 C DKHZIHL1 KHZ(-1) YDZ RMALIHHZ AR(1) AR(2) @ C KHZ(-1) RMALIHHZ YDZ(-1) KHZ(-2) KHZ(-3) RMALIHHZ(-1) RMALIHHZ(-2) YDZ(-2) LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LYNLZ(-1) PCPD(-1) LIMZ(-1) DKHZIHL1 DKHZIHL1(-1) DKHZIHL1(-2) IHHZ1(-1) IHHZ1(-2) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- C LIMZ_LAG_1 YDZ_LAG_1 YDZ_LAG_2 KHZ_LAG_1 KHZ_LAG_2 KHZ_LAG_3 LJHGSZ LCOGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 LEXZ_LAG_1 PCPD_LAG_1 LTRGSZ LYNLZ_LAG_1 RMALIHHZ RMALIHHZ_LAG_1 RMALIHHZ_LAG_2 DKHZIHL1 DKHZIHL1_LAG_1 DKHZIHL1_LAG_2 IHHZ1_LAG_1 IHHZ1_LAG_2 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- YDZ ESTIMATION MAXIMUM NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE OF U'DU 15. ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE OF U'DU 16. MAXIMUM NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 100 ACTUAL NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 17 DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS IHHZ1 RESULTS OUTPUT # 5 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 USING ALGORITHM DFP NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .3687566 R**2 ADJ .3488226 UNCENTERED R**2 .3728401 MEAN OF DEP VAR 9.781161E-04 F TEST 16.44035 PROB OF F TEST 5.446299E-17 DURBIN-WATSON 1.970026 DURBIN'S H 0 R**2 TIMES N 72.64504 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 9.275139E-05 SUM OF SQUARED RESID 1.827202E-02 SEE OR RMSE 9.630753E-03 SUM OF ABS(RES) 1.475352 RHO 1.239951E-02 U'DU 1.882358E-03 STD DEV OF DEP VAR 1.215253E-02 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C .3312718 7.822319E-02 4.234956 0.000035 YDZ .1378728 3.593918E-02 3.836283 0.000168 LAG_1_KHZ -3.205521E-02 9.197151E-03 -3.485342 0.000606 RMALIHHZ -2.892991E-02 4.687414E-03 -6.171826 0.000000 DKHZIHL1 .5304264 6.744941E-02 7.864064 0.000000 AR-LAG-1 .613979 7.910787E-02 7.761289 0.000000 AR-LAG-2 .2330044 .0732943 3.179025 0.001716 EQUATION EQ5.TSLS LL1Z C LL1Z(-1) LAAZ(-1) UR @ C LL1Z(-1) LAAZ(-1) UR(-1) LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) PCPD(-1) LODHM(-1) LIMZ(-1) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- UR_LAG_1 C LL1Z_LAG_1 LIMZ_LAG_1 LYZ_LAG_1 LAAZ_LAG_1 LPIMZ_LAG_1 LJHGSZ LCOGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 LVZ_LAG_1 PCPD_LAG_1 LYNLZ_LAG_1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- UR ESTIMATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LL1Z RESULTS OUTPUT # 6 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .9889367 R**2 ADJ .9887648 UNCENTERED R**2 .9986349 MEAN OF DEP VAR -5.471613E-02 F TEST 4402.42 PROB OF F TEST 0 DURBIN-WATSON 2.181124 DURBIN'S H -1.678789 R**2 TIMES N 194.8205 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 4.662149E-06 SUM OF SQUARED RESID 9.184433E-04 SEE OR RMSE 2.159201E-03 SUM OF ABS(RES) .3252454 RHO -.108677 U'DU 8.059122E-05 STD DEV OF DEP VAR 2.058053E-02 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- UR -.0188472 1.521861E-02 -1.238431 0.217030 C 1.778401E-02 8.192473E-03 2.170774 0.031144 LAG_1_LL1Z .9384794 2.975696E-02 31.53815 0.000000 LAG_1_LAAZ -4.755026E-03 2.122802E-03 -2.239976 0.026210 EQUATION EQ6.TSLS LL2Z C LL2Z(-1) LWAZPH LAAZ(-1) @ C LL2Z(-1) LAAZ(-1) LWAZPH(-1) T LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LYNLZ(-1) LPIMZ(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) RS(-1) RS(-2) RB(-1) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RB_LAG_1 RS_LAG_1 RS_LAG_2 T C LL2Z_LAG_1 LIMZ_LAG_1 LYZ_LAG_1 LAAZ_LAG_1 LPIMZ_LAG_1 LJHGSZ LCOGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 LEXZ_LAG_1 LVZ_LAG_1 LTRGSZ LWAZPH_LAG_1 LYNLZ_LAG_1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- LWAZPH ESTIMATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LL2Z RESULTS OUTPUT # 7 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .9993879 R**2 ADJ .9993784 UNCENTERED R**2 .9999045 MEAN OF DEP VAR -.5411265 F TEST 80413.31 PROB OF F TEST 0 DURBIN-WATSON 2.143366 DURBIN'S H -1.105783 R**2 TIMES N 196.8794 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 3.314868E-05 SUM OF SQUARED RESID 6.530291E-03 SEE OR RMSE 5.757489E-03 SUM OF ABS(RES) .8542218 RHO -7.854727E-02 U'DU 5.109294E-04 STD DEV OF DEP VAR .2333093 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C 3.657021E-02 1.593602E-02 2.294814 0.022797 LAG_1_LL2Z .993284 5.516374E-03 180.061 0.000000 LAG_1_LAAZ -8.899893E-03 3.285351E-03 -2.708963 0.007344 LWAZPH 1.723137E-02 6.498681E-03 2.651519 0.008665 EQUATION EQ7.TSLS LL3Z C LL3Z(-1) LWAZPH LAAZ(-1) UR @ C LL3Z(-1) LAAZ(-1) LWAZPH(-1) UR(-1) LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LPIMZ(-1) PCPD(-1) LYZ(-1) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- UR_LAG_1 C LL3Z_LAG_1 LIMZ_LAG_1 LYZ_LAG_1 LAAZ_LAG_1 LPIMZ_LAG_1 LJHGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 LEXZ_LAG_1 PCPD_LAG_1 LTRGSZ LWAZPH_LAG_1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- UR LWAZPH ESTIMATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LL3Z RESULTS OUTPUT # 8 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .9859273 R**2 ADJ .9856342 UNCENTERED R**2 .9999471 MEAN OF DEP VAR -.7406553 F TEST 2760.359 PROB OF F TEST 0 DURBIN-WATSON 2.034582 DURBIN'S H -.6544463 R**2 TIMES N 194.2277 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 2.911618E-05 SUM OF SQUARED RESID 5.735888E-03 SEE OR RMSE 5.395941E-03 SUM OF ABS(RES) .8413286 RHO -4.527695E-02 U'DU 3.193739E-04 STD DEV OF DEP VAR 4.560206E-02 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- UR -.1238604 .0369507 -3.352044 0.000962 C 1.906164E-02 1.527926E-02 1.24755 0.213677 LAG_1_LL3Z .9778557 .0170227 57.44422 0.000000 LAG_1_LAAZ -6.83296E-03 5.081174E-03 -1.34476 0.180249 LWAZPH 8.335699E-03 6.371833E-03 1.308211 0.192326 EQUATION EQ8.TSLS LLMZ C LLMZ(-1) LWAZPH UR @ C LLMZ(-1) LWAZPH(-1) UR(-1) LJHGSZ LPIMZ(-1) PCPD(-1) RS(-1) RS(-2) RB(-1) LCOGSZ LTRGSZ LODHM(-1) LYNLZ(-1) LAAZ(-1) LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RB_LAG_1 RS_LAG_1 RS_LAG_2 UR_LAG_1 C LLMZ_LAG_1 LIMZ_LAG_1 LYZ_LAG_1 LAAZ_LAG_1 LPIMZ_LAG_1 LJHGSZ LCOGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 LEXZ_LAG_1 LVZ_LAG_1 PCPD_LAG_1 LTRGSZ LWAZPH_LAG_1 LYNLZ_LAG_1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- UR LWAZPH ESTIMATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LLMZ RESULTS OUTPUT # 9 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .929275 R**2 ADJ .9281757 UNCENTERED R**2 .9997052 MEAN OF DEP VAR -3.678108 F TEST 647.1096 PROB OF F TEST 0 DURBIN-WATSON 1.983788 DURBIN'S H 9.558827E-02 R**2 TIMES N 183.0672 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 4.005225E-03 SUM OF SQUARED RESID .7890294 SEE OR RMSE 6.328685E-02 SUM OF ABS(RES) 10.13804 RHO 6.306289E-03 U'DU 6.556023E-02 STD DEV OF DEP VAR .238579 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- UR -2.82342 .4527608 -6.236008 0.000000 C -.4336347 8.406647E-02 -5.158236 0.000001 LAG_1_LLMZ .8399114 2.690064E-02 31.22273 0.000000 LWAZPH .1277819 3.134879E-02 4.076134 0.000066 EQUATION EQ9.TSLS LMHZ C LMHL1Q LYDZ RSA T D981 AR(1) AR(2) AR(3) AR(4) @ C LMHZ(-1) LYDZ(-1) RSA(-1) T LMHL1Q(-1) LMHL1Q(-2) LMHL1Q(-3) LMHL1Q(-4) LYDZ(-2) LYDZ(-3) LYDZ(-4) LYDZ(-5) RSA(-2) RSA(-3) RSA(-4) RSA(-5) LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) PCPD(-1) UR(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) LAAZ(-1) RB(-1) D981 D981(-1) D981(-2) D981(-3) D981(-4) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RB_LAG_1 UR_LAG_1 RSA_LAG_1 RSA_LAG_2 RSA_LAG_3 RSA_LAG_4 RSA_LAG_5 T C D981 D981_LAG_1 D981_LAG_2 D981_LAG_3 D981_LAG_4 LMHZ_LAG_1 LIMZ_LAG_1 LYZ_LAG_1 LYDZ_LAG_1 LYDZ_LAG_2 LYDZ_LAG_3 LYDZ_LAG_4 LYDZ_LAG_5 LAAZ_LAG_1 LPIMZ_LAG_1 LJHGSZ LCOGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 LEXZ_LAG_1 LVZ_LAG_1 PCPD_LAG_1 LMHL1Q_LAG_1 LMHL1Q_LAG_2 LMHL1Q_LAG_3 LMHL1Q_LAG_4 LTRGSZ LYNLZ_LAG_1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RSA LYDZ LMHL1Q ESTIMATION MAXIMUM NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE OF U'DU 15. ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE OF U'DU 16. MAXIMUM NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 100 ACTUAL NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 30 DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LMHZ RESULTS OUTPUT # 10 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:2 TO 2003:1 USING ALGORITHM DFP NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 196 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 196 R**2 .9762288 R**2 ADJ .9750786 UNCENTERED R**2 .9983847 MEAN OF DEP VAR .8138775 F TEST 804.9268 PROB OF F TEST 0 DURBIN-WATSON 2.000553 DURBIN'S H 0 R**2 TIMES N 191.3408 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 1.148024E-03 SUM OF SQUARED RESID .2250126 SEE OR RMSE .0338825 SUM OF ABS(RES) 5.064413 RHO -1.014687E-03 U'DU 4.713807E-02 STD DEV OF DEP VAR .2203233 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- RSA -1.342096E-02 3.232191E-03 -4.15228 0.000049 T -5.215977E-03 8.569681E-03 -.6086548 0.543458 C .7176679 2.510448 .2858725 0.775278 D981 -.1228868 2.977403E-02 -4.127316 0.000054 LYDZ .3022066 .2548498 1.185822 0.237128 LMHL1Q .7605942 5.823386E-02 13.06103 0.000000 AR-LAG-1 .1304712 8.137839E-02 1.603266 0.110486 AR-LAG-2 .3241395 6.938803E-02 4.671403 0.000006 AR-LAG-3 .1135469 6.941764E-02 1.635706 0.103506 AR-LAG-4 .4085523 7.082137E-02 5.768773 0.000000 EQUATION EQ10.TSLS LPF LPF(-1) LWFD5 C LPIM UR T @ LPF(-1) LWFD5(-1) C LPIMZ(-1) UR(-1) T LCOGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LYNLZ(-1) LTRGSZ LAAZ(-1) LYZ(-1) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- UR_LAG_1 T C LPF_LAG_1 LIMZ_LAG_1 LWFD5_LAG_1 LYZ_LAG_1 LAAZ_LAG_1 LPIMZ_LAG_1 LCOGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 LEXZ_LAG_1 LTRGSZ LYNLZ_LAG_1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- UR LWFD5 LPIM ESTIMATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LPF RESULTS OUTPUT # 11 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .9999703 R**2 ADJ .9999695 UNCENTERED R**2 .9999896 MEAN OF DEP VAR -.8296498 F TEST 1105399 PROB OF F TEST 0 DURBIN-WATSON 1.794075 DURBIN'S H 1.445882 R**2 TIMES N 196.9942 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 1.096388E-05 SUM OF SQUARED RESID 2.159884E-03 SEE OR RMSE 3.311175E-03 SUM OF ABS(RES) .4975508 RHO .1017523 U'DU 1.003685E-04 STD DEV OF DEP VAR .60911 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- UR -.1758387 2.337584E-02 -7.52224 0.000000 T 3.009285E-04 3.039629E-05 9.900172 0.000000 C -2.351015E-02 1.065347E-02 -2.206808 0.028483 LAG_1_LPF .8798952 1.112023E-02 79.1256 0.000000 LWFD5 4.503965E-02 1.342358E-02 3.355263 0.000951 LPIM 4.775326E-02 2.264045E-03 21.09201 0.000000 EQUATION EQ11.TSLS LY C LY(-1) LX LV(-1) D593 D594 D601 AR(1) AR(2) AR(3) @ C LY(-1) LV(-1) LY(-2) LY(-3) LY(-4) LV(-2) LV(-3) LV(-4) D593 D594 D601 D601(-1) D601(-2) D601(-3) T LCOGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) UR(-1) RS(-1) RB(-1) PCPD(-1) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RB_LAG_1 RS_LAG_1 UR_LAG_1 D593 D594 D601 D601_LAG_1 D601_LAG_2 D601_LAG_3 T C LIMZ_LAG_1 LY_LAG_1 LY_LAG_2 LY_LAG_3 LY_LAG_4 LPIMZ_LAG_1 LCOGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 LEXZ_LAG_1 LV_LAG_1 LV_LAG_2 LV_LAG_3 LV_LAG_4 PCPD_LAG_1 LTRGSZ LYNLZ_LAG_1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- LX ESTIMATION MAXIMUM NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE OF U'DU 15. ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE OF U'DU 16. MAXIMUM NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 100 ACTUAL NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 61 DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LY RESULTS OUTPUT # 12 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 USING ALGORITHM DFP NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .9999315 R**2 ADJ .9999282 UNCENTERED R**2 .9999996 MEAN OF DEP VAR 6.842645 F TEST 287622.8 PROB OF F TEST 0 DURBIN-WATSON 2.022432 DURBIN'S H -.2258198 R**2 TIMES N 196.9865 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 1.613735E-05 SUM OF SQUARED RESID 3.179057E-03 SEE OR RMSE 4.017132E-03 SUM OF ABS(RES) .6079841 RHO -1.217906E-02 U'DU 4.645363E-04 STD DEV OF DEP VAR .4866476 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- D593 -1.157022E-02 3.702063E-03 -3.125343 0.002044 D594 -4.148809E-03 3.685698E-03 -1.125651 0.261683 D601 8.703631E-03 3.679449E-03 2.365472 0.018978 C .2678257 6.044472E-02 4.43092 0.000016 LX .8738141 5.123942E-02 17.05355 0.000000 LAG_1_LY .3212758 4.655546E-02 6.900925 0.000000 LAG_1_LV -.2396409 2.872985E-02 -8.341182 0.000000 AR-LAG-1 .4081145 7.838462E-02 5.206563 0.000000 AR-LAG-2 .3132014 .0739061 4.237828 0.000035 AR-LAG-3 .1925597 7.332746E-02 2.626025 0.009318 EQUATION EQ12.TSLS LKK1 C LEXKK(-1) LKK1(-1) LY1 LY1(-1) LY1(-2) LY1(-3) LY1(-4) RBA4(-2) CGZ3(-2) @ LKK(-1) LKK(-2) LY(-1) LY(-2) LY(-3) LY(-4) LY(-5) C LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LODHM(-1) LYNLZ(-1) UR(-1) LEXZ(-1) LAAZ(-1) RBA4(-2) CGZ3(-2) LEXKK(-1) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- UR_LAG_1 C LY_LAG_1 LY_LAG_2 LY_LAG_3 LY_LAG_4 LY_LAG_5 LAAZ_LAG_1 LJHGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 LEXZ_LAG_1 LTRGSZ LYNLZ_LAG_1 LKK_LAG_1 LKK_LAG_2 RBA4_LAG_2 CGZ3_LAG_2 LEXKK_LAG_1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- LY1 ESTIMATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LKK1 RESULTS OUTPUT # 13 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .9701528 R**2 ADJ .9687163 UNCENTERED R**2 .9971544 MEAN OF DEP VAR 7.823771E-03 F TEST 640.3281 PROB OF F TEST 0 DURBIN-WATSON 2.031048 DURBIN'S H -.2427977 R**2 TIMES N 191.1201 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 1.925431E-07 SUM OF SQUARED RESID 3.793099E-05 SEE OR RMSE 4.387973E-04 SUM OF ABS(RES) 6.598661E-02 RHO -1.685133E-02 U'DU 1.260506E-06 STD DEV OF DEP VAR 2.546344E-03 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C 3.350494E-05 1.599388E-04 .2094861 0.834285 LY1 4.042737E-02 9.86447E-03 4.098281 0.000061 LAG_1_LY1 5.81056E-03 4.747975E-03 1.223797 0.222490 LAG_2_LY1 4.827913E-03 4.22297E-03 1.143251 0.254322 LAG_3_LY1 7.999475E-03 4.053751E-03 1.973351 0.049854 LAG_4_LY1 5.732824E-03 3.921303E-03 1.461969 0.145343 LAG_2_RBA4 -3.882526E-05 1.619991E-05 -2.396634 0.017481 LAG_2_CGZ3 4.551212E-04 2.144123E-04 2.122645 0.035032 LAG_1_LKK1 .9372187 1.609698E-02 58.22325 0.000000 LAG_1_LEXKK -6.641783E-03 2.628899E-03 -2.52645 0.012309 EQUATION EQ13.TSLS LJF1 C LEXL(-1) LJF1(-1) LY1 D593 @ C LEXL(-1) LJF1(-1) LY1(-1) D593 LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) PCPD(-1) UR(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) RS(-1) RS(-2) RB(-1) LTRGSZ LYNLZ(-1) LAAZ(-1) LPIMZ(-1) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RB_LAG_1 RS_LAG_1 RS_LAG_2 UR_LAG_1 D593 C LIMZ_LAG_1 LEXL_LAG_1 LYZ_LAG_1 LAAZ_LAG_1 LPIMZ_LAG_1 LJHGSZ LCOGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 LEXZ_LAG_1 LVZ_LAG_1 LJF1_LAG_1 LY1_LAG_1 PCPD_LAG_1 LTRGSZ LYNLZ_LAG_1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- LY1 ESTIMATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LJF1 RESULTS OUTPUT # 14 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .7690226 R**2 ADJ .7642105 UNCENTERED R**2 .8344949 MEAN OF DEP VAR 3.902358E-03 F TEST 131.1794 PROB OF F TEST 0 DURBIN-WATSON 1.975662 DURBIN'S H 5.198106E-02 R**2 TIMES N 151.4975 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 8.891539E-06 SUM OF SQUARED RESID 1.751633E-03 SEE OR RMSE 2.981868E-03 SUM OF ABS(RES) .4573911 RHO 2.970115E-03 U'DU 1.377165E-04 STD DEV OF DEP VAR 6.220263E-03 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- D593 -1.458234E-02 3.08799E-03 -4.722275 0.000004 C 2.06453E-03 6.538413E-04 3.15754 0.001841 LAG_1_LEXL -.1042828 1.788833E-02 -5.829654 0.000000 LAG_1_LJF1 .4548565 .0425599 10.68744 0.000000 LY1 .3286926 .0356608 9.217198 0.000000 EQUATION EQ14.TSLS LHF1 C LHFL1A LEXL(-1) LY1 @ C LHFL1A LEXL(-1) LY1(-1) LJHGSZ PCPD(-1) UR(-1) RS(-1) RS(-2) LPIMZ(-1) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RS_LAG_1 RS_LAG_2 UR_LAG_1 C LHFL1A LEXL_LAG_1 LPIMZ_LAG_1 LJHGSZ LY1_LAG_1 PCPD_LAG_1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- LY1 ESTIMATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LHF1 RESULTS OUTPUT # 15 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .3214173 R**2 ADJ .3108694 UNCENTERED R**2 .352681 MEAN OF DEP VAR -7.322882E-04 F TEST 23.32775 PROB OF F TEST 8.450521E-16 DURBIN-WATSON 2.061411 DURBIN'S H 0 R**2 TIMES N 63.31921 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 7.534333E-06 SUM OF SQUARED RESID 1.484264E-03 SEE OR RMSE 2.744874E-03 SUM OF ABS(RES) .4247184 RHO -3.683206E-02 U'DU 5.226826E-05 STD DEV OF DEP VAR 3.340612E-03 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C -3.118307E-03 6.159591E-04 -5.062522 0.000001 LHFL1A -.2173611 3.905137E-02 -5.566031 0.000000 LAG_1_LEXL -4.125981E-02 1.622133E-02 -2.543553 0.011741 LY1 .1947956 4.087937E-02 4.765132 0.000004 EQUATION EQ15.LS LHO C HFF HFF(-1) AR(1) / DN LEAST SQUARES ARIMA ESTIMATION REGULAR DIFFERENCING 0 SEASONAL DIFFERENCING 0 MAXIMUM NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE OF SUM OF SQUARED RESIDUALS 15. ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE OF SUM OF SQUARED RESIDUALS 15. MAXIMUM NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 100 ACTUAL NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 10 DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LHO RESULTS OUTPUT # 16 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1956:1 TO 2003:1 USING ALGORITHM GAUSS-NEWTON NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 189 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 189 R**2 .9559997 R**2 ADJ .9552862 UNCENTERED R**2 .9998586 MEAN OF DEP VAR 3.779274 F TEST 1026.607 PROB OF F TEST 0 DURBIN-WATSON 1.770159 DURBIN'S H 0 R**2 TIMES N 180.6839 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 2.026974E-03 SUM OF SQUARED RESID .3830982 SEE OR RMSE 4.502193E-02 SUM OF ABS(RES) 6.430234 RHO .1004479 LOG(LIKELIHOOD) 317.8351 SCHWARZ CRITERION 307.3517 AKAIKE CRITERION 313.8351 STD DEV OF DEP VAR .215203 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- HFF 1.903987E-02 2.237803E-03 8.508287 0.000000 LAG_1_HFF 1.128627E-02 2.234827E-03 5.050177 0.000001 C 3.979517 .1458445 27.28603 0.000000 AR-LAG-1 .9749586 1.775268E-02 54.91896 0.000000 EQUATION EQ16.TSLS LWFQZ LWFQZPF(-1) LPFZ C T @ LWFQZPF(-1) LPFZ(-1) C T LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LYNLZ(-1) UR(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) LPIMZ(-1) RS(-1) RS(-2) RB(-1) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RB_LAG_1 RS_LAG_1 RS_LAG_2 UR_LAG_1 T C LYZ_LAG_1 LWFQZPF_LAG_1 LPIMZ_LAG_1 LJHGSZ LCOGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 LEXZ_LAG_1 LVZ_LAG_1 LTRGSZ LYNLZ_LAG_1 LPFZ_LAG_1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- LPFZ ESTIMATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LWFQZ RESULTS OUTPUT # 17 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .8900387 R**2 ADJ .8883294 UNCENTERED R**2 .9998399 MEAN OF DEP VAR -.5461642 F TEST 398.6348 PROB OF F TEST 0 DURBIN-WATSON 1.717265 DURBIN'S H 0 R**2 TIMES N 175.3376 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 4.782336E-05 SUM OF SQUARED RESID 9.421201E-03 SEE OR RMSE 6.915444E-03 SUM OF ABS(RES) 1.06242 RHO .1390847 U'DU 8.717061E-04 STD DEV OF DEP VAR 2.090765E-02 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- T 1.010022E-04 3.942929E-05 2.561604 0.011167 C -5.868276E-02 1.357735E-02 -4.322108 0.000025 LAG_1_LWFQZPF .9250125 2.304136E-02 40.14575 0.000000 LPFZ .8161029 .0496631 16.43278 0.000000 EQUATION EQ17.TSLS LMFZ C LMFL1Q LXMFA RSB(-1) D981 @ C LMFZ(-1) LXMFA(-1) RSB(-1) T LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) PCPD(-1) UR(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) RS(-2) RB(-1) D981 / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RB_LAG_1 RS_LAG_2 UR_LAG_1 T C D981 LMFZ_LAG_1 LIMZ_LAG_1 LYZ_LAG_1 LPIMZ_LAG_1 RSB_LAG_1 LJHGSZ LCOGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 LEXZ_LAG_1 LVZ_LAG_1 PCPD_LAG_1 LYNLZ_LAG_1 LXMFA_LAG_1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- LMFL1Q LXMFA ESTIMATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LMFZ RESULTS OUTPUT # 18 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .9879276 R**2 ADJ .9876761 UNCENTERED R**2 .9999756 MEAN OF DEP VAR 5.802016 F TEST 3224.247 PROB OF F TEST 0 DURBIN-WATSON 2.025154 DURBIN'S H 0 R**2 TIMES N 194.6217 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 8.221884E-04 SUM OF SQUARED RESID .1619711 SEE OR RMSE 2.867383E-02 SUM OF ABS(RES) 4.389811 RHO -.0133772 U'DU 1.721125E-02 STD DEV OF DEP VAR .261634 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C .1082753 5.347967E-02 2.024606 0.044258 D981 .1416472 2.889731E-02 4.901746 0.000002 LAG_1_RSB -4.413003E-03 1.710246E-03 -2.580333 0.010598 LMFL1Q .9438675 1.673771E-02 56.39167 0.000000 LXMFA 3.584566E-02 9.558785E-03 3.750023 0.000232 EQUATION EQ18.TSLS LDF1 LPIEFAZ @ LPIEFAZ(-1) C LJHGSZ PCPD(-1) UR(-1) RS(-1) RS(-2) LPIMZ(-1) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RS_LAG_1 RS_LAG_2 UR_LAG_1 C LPIEFAZ_LAG_1 LPIMZ_LAG_1 LJHGSZ PCPD_LAG_1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- LPIEFAZ ESTIMATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LDF1 RESULTS OUTPUT # 19 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 4.857133E-02 R**2 ADJ 4.857133E-02 UNCENTERED R**2 .4271788 MEAN OF DEP VAR 1.880621E-02 F TEST 10.05704 PROB OF F TEST 1.760389E-03 DURBIN-WATSON 1.66421 DURBIN'S H 0 R**2 TIMES N 9.568552 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 5.091064E-04 SUM OF SQUARED RESID .100294 SEE OR RMSE 2.256339E-02 SUM OF ABS(RES) 3.399186 RHO .1541146 U'DU 5.384586E-03 STD DEV OF DEP VAR 2.319109E-02 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- LPIEFAZ 2.742551E-02 2.26004E-03 12.13497 0.000000 EQUATION EQ19.LS INTFZ1 C RQF AR(1) / DN LEAST SQUARES ARIMA ESTIMATION REGULAR DIFFERENCING 0 SEASONAL DIFFERENCING 0 MAXIMUM NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE OF SUM OF SQUARED RESIDUALS 15. ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE OF SUM OF SQUARED RESIDUALS 15. MAXIMUM NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 100 ACTUAL NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 11 DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS INTFZ1 RESULTS OUTPUT # 20 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 USING ALGORITHM GAUSS-NEWTON NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .180695 R**2 ADJ .1722485 UNCENTERED R**2 .2099253 MEAN OF DEP VAR 1.400423E-04 F TEST 14.48256 PROB OF F TEST 1.456354E-08 DURBIN-WATSON 1.995774 DURBIN'S H 0 R**2 TIMES N 35.59691 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 4.343091E-07 SUM OF SQUARED RESID 8.55589E-05 SEE OR RMSE 6.590213E-04 SUM OF ABS(RES) 8.772016E-02 RHO -1.262817E-02 LOG(LIKELIHOOD) 1163.446 SCHWARZ CRITERION 1155.521 AKAIKE CRITERION 1160.446 STD DEV OF DEP VAR 7.299309E-04 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C 1.592198E-04 8.382896E-05 1.899341 0.058981 RQF 2.022803E-02 1.317764E-02 1.535027 0.126382 AR-LAG-1 .433263 6.716923E-02 6.45032 0.000000 EQUATION EQ20.LS IVA PX1VL AR(1) / DN LEAST SQUARES ARIMA ESTIMATION REGULAR DIFFERENCING 0 SEASONAL DIFFERENCING 0 MAXIMUM NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE OF SUM OF SQUARED RESIDUALS 15. ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE OF SUM OF SQUARED RESIDUALS 15. MAXIMUM NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 100 ACTUAL NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 8 DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS IVA RESULTS OUTPUT # 21 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 USING ALGORITHM GAUSS-NEWTON NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .7090029 R**2 ADJ .7075106 UNCENTERED R**2 .7821503 MEAN OF DEP VAR -1.896701 F TEST 239.9913 PROB OF F TEST 0 DURBIN-WATSON 1.98085 DURBIN'S H 0 R**2 TIMES N 139.6736 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 3.117769 SUM OF SQUARED RESID 614.2005 SEE OR RMSE 1.76572 SUM OF ABS(RES) 226.342 RHO 9.53867E-03 LOG(LIKELIHOOD) -391.5369 SCHWARZ CRITERION -396.8201 AKAIKE CRITERION -393.5369 STD DEV OF DEP VAR 3.281578 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- PX1VL -.2565083 5.818036E-02 -4.408847 0.000017 AR-LAG-1 .809028 4.387458E-02 18.43956 0.000000 EQUATION EQ21.LS LCCF1 LPIKIKFZ C D621 D722 D723 D923 D924 D941 D942 D013 D014 AR(1) / DN LEAST SQUARES ARIMA ESTIMATION REGULAR DIFFERENCING 0 SEASONAL DIFFERENCING 0 MAXIMUM NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE OF SUM OF SQUARED RESIDUALS 15. ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE OF SUM OF SQUARED RESIDUALS 14. MAXIMUM NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 100 ACTUAL NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 10 DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LCCF1 RESULTS OUTPUT # 22 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 USING ALGORITHM GAUSS-NEWTON NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .7465218 R**2 ADJ .7314501 UNCENTERED R**2 .8755595 MEAN OF DEP VAR 1.933005E-02 F TEST 48.34892 PROB OF F TEST 0 DURBIN-WATSON 2.051339 DURBIN'S H 0 R**2 TIMES N 147.0648 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 9.133808E-05 SUM OF SQUARED RESID .0179936 SEE OR RMSE 9.557096E-03 SUM OF ABS(RES) 1.312281 RHO -4.893919E-02 LOG(LIKELIHOOD) 636.6121 SCHWARZ CRITERION 604.9128 AKAIKE CRITERION 624.6121 STD DEV OF DEP VAR 1.903096E-02 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C 3.264563E-03 2.151283E-03 1.517496 0.130744 D621 5.789312E-02 9.14887E-03 6.327899 0.000000 D722 5.331952E-02 9.538251E-03 5.590073 0.000000 D723 -4.561966E-02 9.541409E-03 -4.781229 0.000003 D923 7.382965E-02 9.57459E-03 7.710999 0.000000 D924 -7.861474E-02 9.633034E-03 -8.160953 0.000000 D941 7.427987E-02 9.573177E-03 7.759167 0.000000 D942 -5.294449E-02 9.612791E-03 -5.507713 0.000000 D013 4.755437E-02 9.553942E-03 4.97746 0.000001 D014 .1127187 9.551722E-03 11.80088 0.000000 LPIKIKFZ 6.039213E-02 7.671903E-03 7.871857 0.000000 AR-LAG-1 .3088879 6.842422E-02 4.514306 0.000011 EQUATION EQ22.TSLS BOZBR C BOZBR(-1) RS RD @ BOZBR(-1) RS(-1) RD(-1) C T LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) PCPD(-1) UR(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) RS(-2) RB(-1) LAAZ(-1) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RB_LAG_1 RS_LAG_1 RS_LAG_2 UR_LAG_1 RD_LAG_1 T C BOZBR_LAG_1 LIMZ_LAG_1 LYZ_LAG_1 LAAZ_LAG_1 LPIMZ_LAG_1 LJHGSZ LCOGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 LEXZ_LAG_1 LVZ_LAG_1 PCPD_LAG_1 LTRGSZ LYNLZ_LAG_1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RS RD ESTIMATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS BOZBR RESULTS OUTPUT # 23 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .3298075 R**2 ADJ .31939 UNCENTERED R**2 .6250818 MEAN OF DEP VAR .0206997 F TEST 24.23635 PROB OF F TEST 2.544009E-16 DURBIN-WATSON 2.090503 DURBIN'S H -2.254544 R**2 TIMES N 64.97208 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 3.646182E-04 SUM OF SQUARED RESID 7.182978E-02 SEE OR RMSE 1.909498E-02 SUM OF ABS(RES) 2.750731 RHO -4.548626E-02 U'DU 8.763498E-03 STD DEV OF DEP VAR .0233843 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- RS 4.438528E-03 3.30388E-03 1.343429 0.180679 RD -2.135941E-03 3.060292E-03 -.6979533 0.486029 C 1.041199E-03 3.094523E-03 .3364652 0.736878 LAG_1_BOZBR .3532933 6.833079E-02 5.170339 0.000001 EQUATION EQ23.TSLS RBMRSL2 C RBLMRSL2 RSMRSL2 RSLMRSL2 AR(1) @ C RB(-1) RB(-2) RS(-1) RS(-2) RS(-3) LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) PCPD(-1) UR(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) LAAZ(-1) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RB_LAG_1 RB_LAG_2 RS_LAG_1 RS_LAG_2 RS_LAG_3 UR_LAG_1 C LIMZ_LAG_1 LYZ_LAG_1 LAAZ_LAG_1 LPIMZ_LAG_1 LJHGSZ LCOGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 LEXZ_LAG_1 LVZ_LAG_1 PCPD_LAG_1 LTRGSZ LYNLZ_LAG_1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RSMRSL2 RSLMRSL2 RBLMRSL2 ESTIMATION MAXIMUM NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE OF U'DU 15. ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE OF U'DU 16. MAXIMUM NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 100 ACTUAL NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 9 DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS RBMRSL2 RESULTS OUTPUT # 24 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .9588319 R**2 ADJ .9579743 UNCENTERED R**2 .9885663 MEAN OF DEP VAR 2.056767 F TEST 917.6521 PROB OF F TEST 0 DURBIN-WATSON 2.034416 DURBIN'S H 0 R**2 TIMES N 188.8899 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 6.696631E-02 SUM OF SQUARED RESID 13.19236 SEE OR RMSE .2587785 SUM OF ABS(RES) 35.84118 RHO -.017706 U'DU 1.341786 STD DEV OF DEP VAR 1.278654 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C .2312479 4.704417E-02 4.915547 0.000002 RSMRSL2 .3025825 4.336993E-02 6.97678 0.000000 RSLMRSL2 -.2371667 .0507036 -4.677513 0.000005 RBLMRSL2 .8943699 1.959092E-02 45.65228 0.000000 AR-LAG-1 .2459902 6.905779E-02 3.562092 0.000461 EQUATION EQ24.TSLS RMMRSL2 C RMLMRSL2 RSMRSL2 RSLMRSL2 @ C RM(-1) RS(-1) RS(-2) LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) PCPD(-1) UR(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) LAAZ(-1) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RM_LAG_1 RS_LAG_1 RS_LAG_2 UR_LAG_1 C LIMZ_LAG_1 LYZ_LAG_1 LAAZ_LAG_1 LPIMZ_LAG_1 LJHGSZ LCOGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 LEXZ_LAG_1 LVZ_LAG_1 PCPD_LAG_1 LTRGSZ LYNLZ_LAG_1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RSMRSL2 RSLMRSL2 RMLMRSL2 ESTIMATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS RMMRSL2 RESULTS OUTPUT # 25 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .8938385 R**2 ADJ .8921883 UNCENTERED R**2 .9875612 MEAN OF DEP VAR 2.994152 F TEST 414.6658 PROB OF F TEST 0 DURBIN-WATSON 1.89282 DURBIN'S H 0 R**2 TIMES N 176.0862 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE .1263127 SUM OF SQUARED RESID 24.88359 SEE OR RMSE .3554049 SUM OF ABS(RES) 49.13711 RHO 5.329132E-02 U'DU 2.509424 STD DEV OF DEP VAR 1.093566 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C .4265744 7.528468E-02 5.666151 0.000000 RSMRSL2 .256665 6.555098E-02 3.915501 0.000124 RSLMRSL2 -3.281048E-02 8.618141E-02 -.3807141 0.703826 RMLMRSL2 .8594022 2.371025E-02 36.24603 0.000000 EQUATION EQ25.TSLS CGZ C RB1 TPIEM1Z @ C RB1(-1) TPIEM1Z(-1) T LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) PCPD(-1) UR(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) RS(-1) RS(-2) RB(-1) LAAZ(-1) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RB_LAG_1 RS_LAG_1 RS_LAG_2 UR_LAG_1 T C LIMZ_LAG_1 LYZ_LAG_1 LAAZ_LAG_1 LPIMZ_LAG_1 LJHGSZ LCOGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 LEXZ_LAG_1 LVZ_LAG_1 PCPD_LAG_1 RB1_LAG_1 TPIEM1Z_LAG_1 LTRGSZ LYNLZ_LAG_1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RB1 TPIEM1Z ESTIMATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS CGZ RESULTS OUTPUT # 26 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 2.350654E-02 R**2 ADJ .0134396 UNCENTERED R**2 .1247 MEAN OF DEP VAR .1210536 F TEST 1.580754 PROB OF F TEST .1953005 DURBIN-WATSON 2.045174 DURBIN'S H 0 R**2 TIMES N 4.630789 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE .1237739 SUM OF SQUARED RESID 24.38346 SEE OR RMSE .3518152 SUM OF ABS(RES) 46.34183 RHO -2.474164E-02 U'DU 1.896573 STD DEV OF DEP VAR .3569316 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C .1192646 2.917088E-02 4.08848 0.000063 RB1 -.2011885 .1205647 -1.668718 0.096762 TPIEM1Z 4.04135 12.75616 .3168155 0.751719 EQUATION EQ26.TSLS LCURZ C LCURL1Q LXMFAZ RSA AR(1) @ C LCURZ(-1) LXMFAZ(-1) RSA(-1) LCURL1Q(-1) T LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) UR(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) RS(-2) RB(-1) LAAZ(-1) PCPD(-1) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RB_LAG_1 RS_LAG_2 UR_LAG_1 RSA_LAG_1 T C LCURZ_LAG_1 LIMZ_LAG_1 LYZ_LAG_1 LAAZ_LAG_1 LPIMZ_LAG_1 LJHGSZ LCOGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 LEXZ_LAG_1 LVZ_LAG_1 PCPD_LAG_1 LCURL1Q_LAG_1 LTRGSZ LYNLZ_LAG_1 LXMFAZ_LAG_1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RSA LCURL1Q LXMFAZ ESTIMATION MAXIMUM NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE OF U'DU 15. ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE OF U'DU 16. MAXIMUM NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 100 ACTUAL NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 8 DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LCURZ RESULTS OUTPUT # 27 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .9979364 R**2 ADJ .9978935 UNCENTERED R**2 .9994133 MEAN OF DEP VAR .3988599 F TEST 19053.84 PROB OF F TEST 0 DURBIN-WATSON 2.002093 DURBIN'S H 0 R**2 TIMES N 196.5935 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 1.304079E-04 SUM OF SQUARED RESID 2.569035E-02 SEE OR RMSE 1.141963E-02 SUM OF ABS(RES) 1.65333 RHO -1.340635E-03 U'DU 1.937568E-03 STD DEV OF DEP VAR .2520279 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- RSA -1.023965E-03 4.944516E-04 -2.070911 0.039670 C -5.239671E-02 7.328516E-03 -7.149704 0.000000 LCURL1Q .9626798 7.446242E-03 129.284 0.000000 LXMFAZ 4.804527E-02 6.619376E-03 7.258279 0.000000 AR-LAG-1 -.2940511 .0680972 -4.31811 0.000025 EQUATION EQ27.TSLS LIMZ C LIMZ(-1) LXXXZ LPFZPIM D691 D692 D714 D721 AR(1) AR(2) @ C LIMZ(-1) LXXXZ(-1) LPFZPIM(-1) LIMZ(-2) LIMZ(-3) LXXXZ(-2) LXXXZ(-3) LPFZPIM(-2) LPFZPIM(-3) D691 D692 D714 D721 D692(-1) D692(-2) D721(-1) D721(-2) LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LYNLZ(-1) PCPD(-1) UR(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) RS(-1) RB(-1) LAAZ(-1) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RB_LAG_1 RS_LAG_1 UR_LAG_1 D691 D692 D692_LAG_1 D692_LAG_2 D714 D721 D721_LAG_1 D721_LAG_2 C LIMZ_LAG_1 LIMZ_LAG_2 LIMZ_LAG_3 LYZ_LAG_1 LAAZ_LAG_1 LJHGSZ LCOGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 LEXZ_LAG_1 LVZ_LAG_1 PCPD_LAG_1 LTRGSZ LYNLZ_LAG_1 LPFZPIM_LAG_1 LPFZPIM_LAG_2 LPFZPIM_LAG_3 LXXXZ_LAG_1 LXXXZ_LAG_2 LXXXZ_LAG_3 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- LPFZPIM LXXXZ ESTIMATION MAXIMUM NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE OF U'DU 15. ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE OF U'DU 16. MAXIMUM NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 100 ACTUAL NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 30 DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LIMZ RESULTS OUTPUT # 28 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 USING ALGORITHM DFP NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .9984015 R**2 ADJ .9983246 UNCENTERED R**2 .9992007 MEAN OF DEP VAR -.6670462 F TEST 12304.75 PROB OF F TEST 0 DURBIN-WATSON 2.026512 DURBIN'S H .9992007 R**2 TIMES N 196.6851 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 7.113517E-04 SUM OF SQUARED RESID .1401363 SEE OR RMSE 2.667118E-02 SUM OF ABS(RES) 3.841613 RHO -1.864504E-02 U'DU 2.018974E-02 STD DEV OF DEP VAR .6688024 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- D691 -.1311453 2.401727E-02 -5.460459 0.000000 D692 .0630655 2.917195E-02 2.161855 0.031835 D714 -7.807666E-02 2.391773E-02 -3.264384 0.001293 D721 .0578996 2.623098E-02 2.207298 0.028448 C -3.605422 .51115 -7.05355 0.000000 LAG_1_LIMZ .2141762 .1086449 1.971341 0.050085 LPFZPIM .2030644 5.761464E-02 3.524528 0.000527 LXXXZ 1.808203 .2554891 7.077419 0.000000 AR-LAG-1 .5500339 .1191675 4.615636 0.000007 AR-LAG-2 .2564595 9.555668E-02 2.683847 0.007897 EQUATION EQ28.TSLS LUB C LUB(-1) LU LWF AR(1) @ C LUB(-1) LU(-1) LWF(-1) LUB(-2) LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) PCPD(-1) RS(-1) RS(-2) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RS_LAG_1 RS_LAG_2 C LWF_LAG_1 LIMZ_LAG_1 LUB_LAG_1 LUB_LAG_2 LU_LAG_1 LPIMZ_LAG_1 LJHGSZ LCOGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 PCPD_LAG_1 LTRGSZ LYNLZ_LAG_1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- LWF LU ESTIMATION MAXIMUM NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE OF U'DU 15. ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE OF U'DU 16. MAXIMUM NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 100 ACTUAL NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 35 DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LUB RESULTS OUTPUT # 29 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .9961046 R**2 ADJ .9960235 UNCENTERED R**2 .9975103 MEAN OF DEP VAR .7787862 F TEST 10075.11 PROB OF F TEST 0 DURBIN-WATSON 2.136808 DURBIN'S H .9975103 R**2 TIMES N 196.2326 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 4.184309E-03 SUM OF SQUARED RESID .8243089 SEE OR RMSE 6.468624E-02 SUM OF ABS(RES) 9.504688 RHO -9.172323E-02 U'DU 7.900072E-02 STD DEV OF DEP VAR 1.039062 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C .9594275 .555273 1.727848 0.085583 LWF .4791889 .1035982 4.625455 0.000007 LAG_1_LUB .2590279 8.383226E-02 3.089835 0.002292 LU 1.167976 .204741 5.70465 0.000000 AR-LAG-1 .9144115 2.883981E-02 31.70658 0.000000 EQUATION EQ29.LS INTGZ1 C RQG / DN ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION SINGULAR VALUE DECOMPOSITION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS INTGZ1 RESULTS OUTPUT # 30 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 5.137617E-02 R**2 ADJ 4.651143E-02 UNCENTERED R**2 5.373132E-02 MEAN OF DEP VAR 3.689295E-05 F TEST 5.334625 PROB OF F TEST 5.543219E-03 DURBIN-WATSON 1.143096 DURBIN'S H 0 R**2 TIMES N 10.12111 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE 5.187715E-07 SUM OF SQUARED RESID 1.02198E-04 SEE OR RMSE 7.202579E-04 SUM OF ABS(RES) 9.805872E-02 RHO .4278129 LOG(LIKELIHOOD) 1145.942 SCHWARZ CRITERION 1140.659 AKAIKE CRITERION 1143.942 STD DEV OF DEP VAR 7.413889E-04 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C 3.966479E-04 1.215067E-04 3.264411 0.001293 RQG 5.927973E-02 1.814844E-02 3.266382 0.001285 EQUATION EQ30.TSLS RS C RS(-1) PCPD UR UR1 PCM1(-1) PCM1L1A RS1(-1) RS1(-2) @ C RS(-1) PCPD(-1) UR(-1) UR1(-1) PCM1(-1) PCM1L1A RS1(-1) RS1(-2) T LCOGSZ LJHGSZ LTRGSZ LEXZ(-1) LIMZ(-1) LODHM(-1) LPIMZ(-1) LYNLZ(-1) LYZ(-1) LVZ(-1) LAAZ(-1) / DN TWO STAGE OBJECTIVE IS MINIMIZE U'DU EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- RS_LAG_1 UR_LAG_1 PCM1_LAG_1 T C LIMZ_LAG_1 LYZ_LAG_1 LAAZ_LAG_1 LPIMZ_LAG_1 LJHGSZ LCOGSZ LODHM_LAG_1 LEXZ_LAG_1 LVZ_LAG_1 PCPD_LAG_1 PCM1L1A RS1_LAG_1 RS1_LAG_2 LTRGSZ LYNLZ_LAG_1 UR1_LAG_1 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ---------------------------------------- UR PCPD UR1 ESTIMATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS RS RESULTS OUTPUT # 31 OBSERVATIONS FROM 1954:1 TO 2003:1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS 197 DEGREES OF FREEDOM 197 R**2 .9704973 R**2 ADJ .9692419 UNCENTERED R**2 .9938256 MEAN OF DEP VAR 5.390502 F TEST 720.04 PROB OF F TEST 0 DURBIN-WATSON 1.824316 DURBIN'S H 1.16582 R**2 TIMES N 191.188 VARIANCE OF ESTIMATE .2268986 SUM OF SQUARED RESID 44.69902 SEE OR RMSE .4763387 SUM OF ABS(RES) 69.49052 RHO 7.993849E-02 U'DU 4.423732 STD DEV OF DEP VAR 2.780291 NAME COEFFICIENT STD. ERR. T-RATIO SIGNIF ---------------------------------------------------------------------- LAG_1_RS .913767 1.935209E-02 47.218 0.000000 UR -11.71391 3.079376 -3.803988 0.000190 LAG_1_PCM1 1.085889E-02 5.839827E-03 1.859453 0.064454 C .7450377 .1527734 4.87675 0.000002 PCPD 8.030733E-02 1.792297E-02 4.480694 0.000013 PCM1L1A .2153343 2.280609E-02 9.441967 0.000000 LAG_1_RS1 .22009 5.670039E-02 3.881631 0.000141 LAG_2_RS1 -.3306212 5.136998E-02 -6.43608 0.000000 UR1 -77.32835 13.3297 -5.801207 0.000000 SIM 2003.2 2006.4 EQ1.D EQ2.D EQ3.D EQ4.D EQ5.D EQ6.D EQ7.D EQ8.D EQ9.D EQ10.D EQ11.D EQ12.D EQ13.D EQ14.D EQ15.D EQ16.D EQ17.D EQ18.D EQ19.D EQ20.D EQ21.D EQ22.D EQ23.D EQ24.D EQ25.D EQ26.D EQ27.D EQ28.D EQ29.D EQ30.D @ I_CS I_CN I_CD I_IHH I_L1 I_L2 I_L3 I_LM I_MH I_PF I_Y I_KK I_JF I_HF I_HO I_MF I_WF I_DF I_CCF I_BO I_RB I_RM I_CG I_CUR I_IM I_UB I_INTF I_INTG I_PX I_PEX I_PD I_PH I_PCS I_PCN I_PCD I_PIH I_PIK I_PG I_PS I_PIV I_WH I_WG I_WM I_WS I_THG I_THS I_TFG I_TFS I_IBTG I_IBTS I_SIHG I_SIFG I_BR I_KD I_KH I_X I_XX I_HN I_V I_YT I_SH I_AH I_PIEF I_CF I_SF I_AF I_MB I_SB I_AB I_SR I_ARR I_SG I_AG I_SS I_AS I_M1 I_GDP I_GDPR I_GDPD I_E I_U I_UR I_AA I_D1GM I_D1SM I_IKF I_KKMIN I_JHMIN I_JJ I_JJS I_Z I_YS I_YNL I_HFF I_TPG I_TCG I_SIG I_PUG I_RECG I_EXPG I_SGP I_TCS I_SIS I_PUS I_TRRSH I_RECS I_EXPS I_SSP I_YD I_SRZ I_IVF I_PROD I_WR I_POP I_SHRPIE I_PCGDPR I_PCGDPD I_PCM1 I_UBR I_WA I_RSA I_RMA I_GNP I_GNPR I_GNPD I_LWFD5 I_LPIM I_LYDZ I_LAAZ I_LCNZ1 I_YDZ I_AAZ I_KDZ I_RMACDZ I_DKDZCDL1 I_KHZ I_RMALIHHZ I_DKHZIHL1 I_LWAZPH I_LMHL1Q I_LX I_LV I_LY1 I_RBA4 I_CGZ3 I_LEXKK I_LEXL I_LHFL1A I_LWFQZPF I_LPFZ I_RSB I_LMFL1Q I_LXMFA I_LPIEFAZ I_RQF I_PX1VL I_LPIKIKFZ I_RSMRSL2 I_RSLMRSL2 I_RBLMRSL2 I_RMLMRSL2 I_RB1 I_TPIEM1Z I_LCURL1Q I_LXMFAZ I_LPFZPIM I_LXXXZ I_LWF I_LU I_RQG I_PCPD I_PCM1L1A I_RS1 I_UR1 I_INTFZ I_INTGZ I_LWFQ I_RQ I_LPIKIKF / USELAGIFUNDEFINED ITERS=40 SAVENONE SIM 2003.2 2006.4 EQ1.D EQ2.D EQ3.D EQ4.D EQ5.D EQ6.D EQ7.D EQ8.D EQ9.D EQ10.D EQ11.D EQ12.D EQ13.D EQ14.D EQ15.D EQ16.D EQ17.D EQ18.D EQ19.D EQ20.D EQ21.D EQ22.D EQ23.D EQ24.D EQ25.D EQ26.D EQ27.D EQ28.D EQ29.D EQ30.D @ I_CS I_CN I_CD I_IHH I_L1 I_L2 I_L3 I_LM I_MH I_PF I_Y I_KK I_JF I_HF I_HO I_MF I_WF I_DF I_CCF I_BO I_RB I_RM I_CG I_CUR I_IM I_UB I_INTF I_INTG I_PX I_PEX I_PD I_PH I_PCS I_PCN I_PCD I_PIH I_PIK I_PG I_PS I_PIV I_WH I_WG I_WM I_WS I_THG I_THS I_TFG I_TFS I_IBTG I_IBTS I_SIHG I_SIFG I_BR I_KD I_KH I_X I_XX I_HN I_V I_YT I_SH I_AH I_PIEF I_CF I_SF I_AF I_MB I_SB I_AB I_SR I_ARR I_SG I_AG I_SS I_AS I_M1 I_GDP I_GDPR I_GDPD I_E I_U I_UR I_AA I_D1GM I_D1SM I_IKF I_KKMIN I_JHMIN I_JJ I_JJS I_Z I_YS I_YNL I_HFF I_TPG I_TCG I_SIG I_PUG I_RECG I_EXPG I_SGP I_TCS I_SIS I_PUS I_TRRSH I_RECS I_EXPS I_SSP I_YD I_SRZ I_IVF I_PROD I_WR I_POP I_SHRPIE I_PCGDPR I_PCGDPD I_PCM1 I_UBR I_WA I_RSA I_RMA I_GNP I_GNPR I_GNPD I_LWFD5 I_LPIM I_LYDZ I_LAAZ I_LCNZ1 I_YDZ I_AAZ I_KDZ I_RMACDZ I_DKDZCDL1 I_KHZ I_RMALIHHZ I_DKHZIHL1 I_LWAZPH I_LMHL1Q I_LX I_LV I_LY1 I_RBA4 I_CGZ3 I_LEXKK I_LEXL I_LHFL1A I_LWFQZPF I_LPFZ I_RSB I_LMFL1Q I_LXMFA I_LPIEFAZ I_RQF I_PX1VL I_LPIKIKFZ I_RSMRSL2 I_RSLMRSL2 I_RBLMRSL2 I_RMLMRSL2 I_RB1 I_TPIEM1Z I_LCURL1Q I_LXMFAZ I_LPFZPIM I_LXXXZ I_LWF I_LU I_RQG I_PCPD I_PCM1L1A I_RS1 I_UR1 I_INTFZ I_INTGZ I_LWFQ I_RQ I_LPIKIKF / USELAGIFUNDEFINED ITERS=40 DISPLAYNONE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 15 MAXIMUM NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 40 ACTUAL NUMBER OF ITERATIONS 41 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- DYNAMIC SIMULATION USE LAGGED VALUE(S) FOR UNDEFINED VARIABLES. GAUSS-SEIDEL ALGORITHM ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 10 NAMES OF EQUATIONS USED: ---------------------------------------- EQ10 EQ1 EQ2 EQ3 EQ4 EQ5 EQ6 EQ7 EQ8 EQ9 EQ11 EQ12 EQ13 EQ14 EQ15 EQ16 EQ17 EQ18 EQ19 EQ20 EQ21 EQ22 EQ23 EQ24 EQ25 EQ26 EQ27 EQ28 EQ29 EQ30 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LPF RESULTS OUTPUT # 32 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- UR -.1758387 T 3.009285E-04 C -2.351015E-02 LAG_1_LPF .8798952 LWFD5 4.503965E-02 LPIM 4.775326E-02 LPF 2003.2 2.522626E-02 2003.3 3.024324E-02 2003.4 3.545371E-02 2004.1 4.087647E-02 2004.2 4.647151E-02 2004.3 5.217838E-02 2004.4 5.794233E-02 2005.1 .0637202 2005.2 6.947981E-02 2005.3 7.520092E-02 2005.4 8.087838E-02 2006.1 8.651507E-02 2006.2 9.211478E-02 2006.3 9.768223E-02 2006.4 .1032273 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 11 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LCSZ RESULTS OUTPUT # 33 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AG1 -.3081444 AG2 -.4534824 AG3 .7958533 RSA -1.024717E-03 T 3.405076E-04 C 4.564984E-02 LAG_1_LCSZ .7963793 LYDZ .1072172 LAG_1_LAAZ .0167921 LCSZ 2003.2 1.437397 2003.3 1.442047 2003.4 1.446595 2004.1 1.450972 2004.2 1.455204 2004.3 1.459309 2004.4 1.463429 2005.1 1.467456 2005.2 1.471411 2005.3 1.475316 2005.4 1.4793 2006.1 1.483249 2006.2 1.487176 2006.3 1.491093 2006.4 1.495126 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 10 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LCNZ RESULTS OUTPUT # 34 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AG1 -.1197765 AG2 .4730663 AG3 -.1850326 RMA -1.89046E-03 C -.1593175 LAG_1_LCNZ .7867218 LAG_1_LCNZ1 .1466849 LYDZ .1057858 LAG_1_LAAZ 4.249823E-02 LCNZ 2003.2 .7996396 2003.3 .800145 2003.4 .801415 2004.1 .8032896 2004.2 .8055466 2004.3 .8080087 2004.4 .8106668 2005.1 .813355 2005.2 .8160231 2005.3 .8186585 2005.4 .8213699 2006.1 .8240642 2006.2 .8267328 2006.3 .8293846 2006.4 .8321371 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 7 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS CDZ1 RESULTS OUTPUT # 35 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AG1 .11575 AG2 2.500108 AG3 -2.038421 C -.2448048 YDZ .1005075 LAG_1_AAZ 5.579906E-04 LAG_1_KDZ -2.463361E-02 RMACDZ -3.956344E-03 DKDZCDL1 .3197674 CDZ1 2003.2 1.144604E-02 2003.3 1.043357E-02 2003.4 1.057117E-02 2004.1 9.892022E-03 2004.2 9.244327E-03 2004.3 8.602062E-03 2004.4 8.785565E-03 2005.1 8.091295E-03 2005.2 7.553658E-03 2005.3 7.166093E-03 2005.4 7.707504E-03 2006.1 7.389804E-03 2006.2 7.215645E-03 2006.3 7.150507E-03 2006.4 7.968915E-03 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 6 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS IHHZ1 RESULTS OUTPUT # 36 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C .3312718 YDZ .1378728 LAG_1_KHZ -3.205521E-02 RMALIHHZ -2.892991E-02 DKHZIHL1 .5304264 AR-LAG-1 .613979 AR-LAG-2 .2330044 IHHZ1 2003.2 2.100949E-03 2003.3 3.135151E-03 2003.4 3.317575E-03 2004.1 2.192434E-03 2004.2 1.306967E-03 2004.3 5.488325E-04 2004.4 1.009809E-03 2005.1 -3.881448E-05 2005.2 -5.54226E-04 2005.3 -7.941603E-04 2005.4 2.756609E-04 2006.1 -2.453271E-04 2006.2 -3.447767E-04 2006.3 -2.887959E-04 2006.4 9.884612E-04 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 10 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LL1Z RESULTS OUTPUT # 37 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- UR -.0188472 C 1.778401E-02 LAG_1_LL1Z .9384794 LAG_1_LAAZ -4.755026E-03 LL1Z 2003.2 -9.999268E-02 2003.3 -9.959195E-02 2003.4 -9.923505E-02 2004.1 -9.891383E-02 2004.2 -.0986257 2004.3 -9.837121E-02 2004.4 -9.815139E-02 2005.1 -9.796766E-02 2005.2 -9.782025E-02 2005.3 -9.770882E-02 2005.4 -9.763178E-02 2006.1 -9.758747E-02 2006.2 -9.757361E-02 2006.3 -9.758808E-02 2006.4 -9.762841E-02 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 11 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LL2Z RESULTS OUTPUT # 38 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C 3.657021E-02 LAG_1_LL2Z .993284 LAG_1_LAAZ -8.899893E-03 LWAZPH 1.723137E-02 LL2Z 2003.2 -.2750024 2003.3 -.2723081 2003.4 -.2696228 2004.1 -.266968 2004.2 -.2643374 2004.3 -.2617254 2004.4 -.2591034 2005.1 -.2564931 2005.2 -.2538919 2005.3 -.2512979 2005.4 -.2486857 2006.1 -.2460799 2006.2 -.2434797 2006.3 -.2408847 2006.4 -.2382704 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 11 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LL3Z RESULTS OUTPUT # 39 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- UR -.1238604 C 1.906164E-02 LAG_1_LL3Z .9778557 LAG_1_LAAZ -6.83296E-03 LWAZPH 8.335699E-03 LL3Z 2003.2 -.787443 2003.3 -.7875213 2003.4 -.7875425 2004.1 -.7874945 2004.2 -.7873905 2004.3 -.7872599 2004.4 -.7871203 2005.1 -.7870091 2005.2 -.786946 2005.3 -.7869444 2005.4 -.7869971 2006.1 -.7871162 2006.2 -.7873002 2006.3 -.7875471 2006.4 -.7878392 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 10 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LLMZ RESULTS OUTPUT # 40 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- UR -2.82342 C -.4336347 LAG_1_LLMZ .8399114 LWAZPH .1277819 LLMZ 2003.2 -3.363664 2003.3 -3.380957 2003.4 -3.393491 2004.1 -3.401697 2004.2 -3.406628 2004.3 -3.409532 2004.4 -3.411269 2005.1 -3.412809 2005.2 -3.414677 2005.3 -3.417174 2005.4 -3.420165 2006.1 -3.42378 2006.2 -3.427931 2006.3 -3.432523 2006.4 -3.43721 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 10 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LMHZ RESULTS OUTPUT # 41 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- RSA -1.342096E-02 T -5.215977E-03 C .7176679 D981 -.1228868 LYDZ .3022066 LMHL1Q .7605942 AR-LAG-1 .1304712 AR-LAG-2 .3241395 AR-LAG-3 .1135469 AR-LAG-4 .4085523 LMHZ 2003.2 .2335146 2003.3 .2330505 2003.4 .2380379 2004.1 .228615 2004.2 .2213266 2004.3 .2089896 2004.4 .2000825 2005.1 .1862693 2005.2 .1746306 2005.3 .1610802 2005.4 .1497346 2006.1 .1366426 2006.2 .1248294 2006.3 .112202 2006.4 .1008482 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 13 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LY RESULTS OUTPUT # 42 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- D593 -1.157022E-02 D594 -4.148809E-03 D601 8.703631E-03 C .2678257 LX .8738141 LAG_1_LY .3212758 LAG_1_LV -.2396409 AR-LAG-1 .4081145 AR-LAG-2 .3132014 AR-LAG-3 .1925597 LY 2003.2 7.62979 2003.3 7.637667 2003.4 7.645969 2004.1 7.654237 2004.2 7.662217 2004.3 7.669896 2004.4 7.677506 2005.1 7.684951 2005.2 7.692276 2005.3 7.699538 2005.4 7.706959 2006.1 7.714395 2006.2 7.721817 2006.3 7.729238 2006.4 7.736838 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 9 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LKK1 RESULTS OUTPUT # 43 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C 3.350494E-05 LY1 4.042737E-02 LAG_1_LY1 5.81056E-03 LAG_2_LY1 4.827913E-03 LAG_3_LY1 7.999475E-03 LAG_4_LY1 5.732824E-03 LAG_2_RBA4 -3.882526E-05 LAG_2_CGZ3 4.551212E-04 LAG_1_LKK1 .9372187 LAG_1_LEXKK -6.641783E-03 LKK1 2003.2 3.376233E-03 2003.3 3.252794E-03 2003.4 3.328206E-03 2004.1 3.468851E-03 2004.2 3.690981E-03 2004.3 3.903786E-03 2004.4 4.126815E-03 2005.1 4.349984E-03 2005.2 4.571564E-03 2005.3 4.792848E-03 2005.4 5.021637E-03 2006.1 5.252004E-03 2006.2 5.482059E-03 2006.3 5.711547E-03 2006.4 5.946273E-03 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 7 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LJF1 RESULTS OUTPUT # 44 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- D593 -1.458234E-02 C 2.06453E-03 LAG_1_LEXL -.1042828 LAG_1_LJF1 .4548565 LY1 .3286926 LJF1 2003.2 1.148873E-03 2003.3 3.261382E-03 2003.4 4.408891E-03 2004.1 4.891348E-03 2004.2 4.933927E-03 2004.3 4.737699E-03 2004.4 4.498167E-03 2005.1 4.224888E-03 2005.2 3.962641E-03 2005.3 3.739214E-03 2005.4 3.622813E-03 2006.1 3.53625E-03 2006.2 3.465071E-03 2006.3 3.410206E-03 2006.4 3.428059E-03 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 6 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LHF1 RESULTS OUTPUT # 45 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C -3.118307E-03 LHFL1A -.2173611 LAG_1_LEXL -4.125981E-02 LY1 .1947956 LHF1 2003.2 9.353221E-04 2003.3 8.873296E-04 2003.4 7.958004E-04 2004.1 6.050076E-04 2004.2 3.848777E-04 2004.3 1.964361E-04 2004.4 8.981484E-05 2005.1 -5.461142E-06 2005.2 -6.659982E-05 2005.3 -9.73464E-05 2005.4 -7.176054E-05 2006.1 -6.855461E-05 2006.2 -6.703694E-05 2006.3 -6.153727E-05 2006.4 -1.960686E-05 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 9 SYSTEM SIMULATION REGULAR DIFFERENCING 0 SEASONAL DIFFERENCING 0 DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LHO RESULTS OUTPUT # 46 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- HFF 1.903987E-02 LAG_1_HFF 1.128627E-02 C 3.979517 AR-LAG-1 .9749586 LHO 2003.2 3.976034 2003.3 3.982844 2003.4 3.988814 2004.1 3.992925 2004.2 3.994455 2004.3 3.993514 2004.4 3.990911 2005.1 3.98713 2005.2 3.9825 2005.3 3.977428 2005.4 3.972515 2006.1 3.967847 2006.2 3.963302 2006.3 3.958901 2006.4 3.954956 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 11 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LWFQZ RESULTS OUTPUT # 47 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- T 1.010022E-04 C -5.868276E-02 LAG_1_LWFQZPF .9250125 LPFZ .8161029 LWFQZ 2003.2 -.5107062 2003.3 -.5105258 2003.4 -.5101997 2004.1 -.5098333 2004.2 -.5094801 2004.3 -.5091559 2004.4 -.5088525 2005.1 -.5085576 2005.2 -.50826 2005.3 -.5079489 2005.4 -.5076119 2006.1 -.5072438 2006.2 -.506846 2006.3 -.5064198 2006.4 -.505963 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 12 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LMFZ RESULTS OUTPUT # 48 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C .1082753 D981 .1416472 LAG_1_RSB -4.413003E-03 LMFL1Q .9438675 LXMFA 3.584566E-02 LMFZ 2003.2 6.499589 2003.3 6.507562 2003.4 6.514556 2004.1 6.520727 2004.2 6.526226 2004.3 6.531198 2004.4 6.535787 2005.1 6.540143 2005.2 6.544374 2005.3 6.548573 2005.4 6.552798 2006.1 6.557072 2006.2 6.561402 2006.3 6.5658 2006.4 6.570277 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 8 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LDF1 RESULTS OUTPUT # 49 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- LPIEFAZ 2.742551E-02 LDF1 2003.2 1.454108E-03 2003.3 2.510378E-03 2003.4 3.384345E-03 2004.1 4.129658E-03 2004.2 4.795237E-03 2004.3 5.422869E-03 2004.4 6.087739E-03 2005.1 6.722094E-03 2005.2 7.334355E-03 2005.3 7.923596E-03 2005.4 8.530047E-03 2006.1 9.079644E-03 2006.2 9.577097E-03 2006.3 1.002765E-02 2006.4 .0104766 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 10 SYSTEM SIMULATION REGULAR DIFFERENCING 0 SEASONAL DIFFERENCING 0 DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS INTFZ1 RESULTS OUTPUT # 50 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C 1.592198E-04 RQF 2.022803E-02 AR-LAG-1 .433263 INTFZ1 2003.2 -2.714433E-04 2003.3 -2.459738E-04 2003.4 -2.342302E-04 2004.1 -2.279813E-04 2004.2 -2.251307E-04 2004.3 -2.22693E-04 2004.4 -2.211233E-04 2005.1 -2.193336E-04 2005.2 -2.173612E-04 2005.3 -2.15193E-04 2005.4 -2.128264E-04 2006.1 -2.102642E-04 2006.2 -2.07606E-04 2006.3 -2.04893E-04 2006.4 -2.02128E-04 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 10 SYSTEM SIMULATION REGULAR DIFFERENCING 0 SEASONAL DIFFERENCING 0 DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS IVA RESULTS OUTPUT # 51 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- PX1VL -.2565083 AR-LAG-1 .809028 IVA 2003.2 -1.956751 2003.3 -1.987087 2003.4 -2.070356 2004.1 -2.167072 2004.2 -2.254248 2004.3 -2.321499 2004.4 -2.370359 2005.1 -2.402892 2005.2 -2.423298 2005.3 -2.435728 2005.4 -2.446438 2006.1 -2.457696 2006.2 -2.470813 2006.3 -2.486166 2006.4 -2.50647 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 8 SYSTEM SIMULATION REGULAR DIFFERENCING 0 SEASONAL DIFFERENCING 0 DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LCCF1 RESULTS OUTPUT # 52 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C 3.264563E-03 D621 5.789312E-02 D722 5.331952E-02 D723 -4.561966E-02 D923 7.382965E-02 D924 -7.861474E-02 D941 7.427987E-02 D942 -5.294449E-02 D013 4.755437E-02 D014 .1127187 LPIKIKFZ 6.039213E-02 AR-LAG-1 .3088879 LCCF1 2003.2 4.259908E-03 2003.3 1.374026E-03 2003.4 1.064598E-03 2004.1 1.537693E-03 2004.2 2.35899E-03 2004.3 3.184387E-03 2004.4 4.01143E-03 2005.1 4.804906E-03 2005.2 5.557962E-03 2005.3 6.273515E-03 2005.4 6.968832E-03 2006.1 7.633527E-03 2006.2 8.265937E-03 2006.3 8.86775E-03 2006.4 9.452492E-03 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 10 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS BOZBR RESULTS OUTPUT # 53 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- RS 4.438528E-03 RD -2.135941E-03 C 1.041199E-03 LAG_1_BOZBR .3532933 BOZBR 2003.2 5.261375E-03 2003.3 7.830472E-03 2003.4 9.476724E-03 2004.1 1.070105E-02 2004.2 1.169689E-02 2004.3 1.252485E-02 2004.4 1.315834E-02 2005.1 .0136242 2005.2 1.393191E-02 2005.3 .0141192 2005.4 1.421771E-02 2006.1 1.426663E-02 2006.2 1.426878E-02 2006.3 1.423127E-02 2006.4 1.416831E-02 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 10 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS RBMRSL2 RESULTS OUTPUT # 54 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C .2312479 RSMRSL2 .3025825 RSLMRSL2 -.2371667 RBLMRSL2 .8943699 AR-LAG-1 .2459902 RBMRSL2 2003.2 4.443564 2003.3 4.435896 2003.4 4.16414 2004.1 3.827621 2004.2 3.553649 2004.3 3.320788 2004.4 3.118022 2005.1 2.945501 2005.2 2.810231 2005.3 2.703325 2005.4 2.623544 2006.1 2.563272 2006.2 2.516421 2006.3 2.476182 2006.4 2.444967 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 10 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS RMMRSL2 RESULTS OUTPUT # 55 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C .4265744 RSMRSL2 .256665 RSLMRSL2 -3.281048E-02 RMLMRSL2 .8594022 RMMRSL2 2003.2 4.28561 2003.3 4.338705 2003.4 4.148614 2004.1 3.890655 2004.2 3.692189 2004.3 3.531146 2004.4 3.395913 2005.1 3.284035 2005.2 3.203344 2005.3 3.144429 2005.4 3.107026 2006.1 3.083992 2006.2 3.070539 2006.3 3.059693 2006.4 3.054206 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 11 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS CGZ RESULTS OUTPUT # 56 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C .1192646 RB1 -.2011885 TPIEM1Z 4.04135 CGZ 2003.2 .1732623 2003.3 .163464 2003.4 .1580124 2004.1 .1516557 2004.2 .1464341 2004.3 .1424606 2004.4 .1404415 2005.1 .1383074 2005.2 .1369839 2005.3 .1357938 2005.4 .1351343 2006.1 .1339313 2006.2 .1331317 2006.3 .1324476 2006.4 .1320985 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 13 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LCURZ RESULTS OUTPUT # 57 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- RSA -1.023965E-03 C -5.239671E-02 LCURL1Q .9626798 LXMFAZ 4.804527E-02 AR-LAG-1 -.2940511 LCURZ 2003.2 1.066927 2003.3 1.075214 2003.4 1.08276 2004.1 1.089996 2004.2 1.096873 2004.3 1.103505 2004.4 1.109971 2005.1 1.116335 2005.2 1.122643 2005.3 1.128929 2005.4 1.135211 2006.1 1.141489 2006.2 1.147764 2006.3 1.154035 2006.4 1.160304 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 9 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LIMZ RESULTS OUTPUT # 58 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- D691 -.1311453 D692 .0630655 D714 -7.807666E-02 D721 .0578996 C -3.605422 LAG_1_LIMZ .2141762 LPFZPIM .2030644 LXXXZ 1.808203 AR-LAG-1 .5500339 AR-LAG-2 .2564595 LIMZ 2003.2 .5722796 2003.3 .577239 2003.4 .5863958 2004.1 .5960402 2004.2 .6064634 2004.3 .6167014 2004.4 .6272715 2005.1 .6375631 2005.2 .6475641 2005.3 .6573656 2005.4 .6676151 2006.1 .6778175 2006.2 .687968 2006.3 .6981272 2006.4 .7088876 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 9 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS LUB RESULTS OUTPUT # 59 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C .9594275 LWF .4791889 LAG_1_LUB .2590279 LU 1.167976 AR-LAG-1 .9144115 LUB 2003.2 2.748055 2003.3 2.733235 2003.4 2.701653 2004.1 2.664349 2004.2 2.630159 2004.3 2.60389 2004.4 2.586625 2005.1 2.577704 2005.2 2.575952 2005.3 2.579848 2005.4 2.587379 2006.1 2.597053 2006.2 2.608251 2006.3 2.620587 2006.4 2.63331 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 8 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS INTGZ1 RESULTS OUTPUT # 60 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C 3.966479E-04 RQG 5.927973E-02 INTGZ1 2003.2 1.144261E-04 2003.3 9.97333E-05 2003.4 8.486093E-05 2004.1 7.178263E-05 2004.2 5.696147E-05 2004.3 4.50413E-05 2004.4 3.27555E-05 2005.1 2.2511E-05 2005.2 1.376426E-05 2005.3 6.334618E-06 2005.4 1.022466E-07 2006.1 -5.026691E-06 2006.2 -9.409975E-06 2006.3 -1.321133E-05 2006.4 -1.647215E-05 ACTUAL NUMBER OF DIGITS OF CONVERGENCE 9 SYSTEM SIMULATION DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS RS RESULTS OUTPUT # 61 OBSERVATIONS FROM 2003:2 TO 2006:4 NAME COEFFICIENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- LAG_1_RS .913767 UR -11.71391 LAG_1_PCM1 1.085889E-02 C .7450377 PCPD 8.030733E-02 PCM1L1A .2153343 LAG_1_RS1 .22009 LAG_2_RS1 -.3306212 UR1 -77.32835 RS 2003.2 1.267349 2003.3 1.471753 2003.4 1.638162 2004.1 1.782967 2004.2 1.909876 2004.3 2.017148 2004.4 2.093971 2005.1 2.148507 2005.2 2.180751 2005.3 2.198455 2005.4 2.205742 2006.1 2.208922 2006.2 2.205514 2006.3 2.19689 2006.4 2.185693 Identities ---------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------